Pro League · May 18, 2024 15:00
Arouca
PWR 45
Guimaraes
PWR 53
Arouca
PWR 45
1 - 3
FT
Guimaraes
PWR 53
45% H
25% D
30% A
Final Verdict
PRO: Arouca to win (70% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
70%
Confidence
PRO
Match Analyzer PRO
Match Analyzer PRO
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (28%)
2-0 (20%)
0-0 (20%)
3-0 (10%)
1-1 (6%)
2-1 (4%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 1-3
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Large gap = lower draw riskWeak home team = higher draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 9.0% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack49
Defense46
Goals/G1.4
Conc/G1.5
Attack53
Defense59
Goals/G1.5
Conc/G1.2
Arouca Form
LLDDD
DOWN
Guimaraes Form
LLLLW
DOWN
Score & Markets
Over 2.522%
BTTS14%
Under 2.578%
Arouca Goals
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
Guimaraes Goals
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Aroucavs
0.20
GuimaraesDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum83%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#196
Arouca-80
Gap#116
Guimaraes
WR 39% 52 pts
WR 48% 69 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 39 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 55 | 60 | 52 |
| Guimaraes | 40 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 60 | 47 | 69 |
Arouca
6.0%
| May 12 | Arouca v Benfica | 5-0 |
| May 12 | Arouca v Benfica | 5-0 |
| May 05 | Arouca v Estrela… | 0-0 |
| May 05 | Arouca v Estrela… | 0-0 |
| Apr 26 | Arouca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Apr 26 | Arouca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Apr 19 | Arouca v Rio Ave… | 1-1 |
| Apr 19 | Arouca v Rio Ave… | 1-1 |
| Apr 14 | Arouca v Boavista | 2-1 |
| Apr 06 | Arouca v SC Braga | 0-3 |
Guimaraes
4.0%
| May 11 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 2-3 |
| May 11 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 2-3 |
| May 04 | Guimara… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| May 04 | Guimara… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| Apr 27 | Guimara… v Boavista | 1-0 |
| Apr 27 | Guimara… v Boavista | 1-0 |
| Apr 21 | Guimara… v Sp Lisb… | 3-0 |
| Apr 21 | Guimara… v Sportin… | 3-0 |
| Apr 17 | Guimara… v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Apr 13 | Guimara… v Farense | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Jan 15, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-1 | Arouca |
| Jan 15, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-1 | Arouca |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Guimaraes | 0-2 | Arouca |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Arouca | 2-2 | Guimaraes |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Guimaraes | 1-3 | Arouca |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Arouca | 2-2 | Guimaraes |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Arouca | 0-0 | Guimaraes |
Key Factors
Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.