AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National League Sep 27, 2025

Carlisle

Home
VS
14:00

Rochdale

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Carlisle Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Rochdale Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 58% Draw Risk: 23%
xG: 2.37 - 0.78
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 0.8
Score Prediction Analysis
Carlisle Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
12%
Rochdale Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
46%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (12%) 1-0 (10%) 3-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 49%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Under 2.5 Goals 42%
Carlisle Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 Carlisle vs York 5-0
Sep 20 Carlisle vs Altrincham 1-2
Sep 13 Carlisle vs Aldershot… 2-0
Sep 06 Carlisle vs Truro City 3-0
Sep 03 Carlisle vs Crawley T… 0-1
Aug 30 Carlisle vs Southampt… 2-1
Aug 25 Carlisle vs Braintree 5-0
Aug 23 Carlisle vs Wealdstone 0-1
Aug 19 Carlisle vs Solihull … 1-1
Aug 16 Carlisle vs Boreham W… 3-3
Rochdale Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 Rochdale vs Solihull … 4-1
Sep 16 Rochdale vs Blackburn… 3-2
Sep 13 Rochdale vs Truro City 0-1
Sep 06 Rochdale vs Braintree 2-0
Aug 30 Rochdale vs Wealdstone 1-3
Aug 25 Rochdale vs Southampt… 1-0
Aug 23 Rochdale vs Crawley T… 2-1
Aug 20 Rochdale vs Gateshead 4-0
Aug 16 Rochdale vs Altrincham 2-1
Aug 13 Rochdale vs Burnley U… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Carlisle in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Rochdale in strong form (5W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 27, 2024 Rochdale 2 - 1 Carlisle Friendlies Clu…
Jan 28, 2023 Rochdale 0 - 1 Carlisle League Two
Sep 03, 2022 Carlisle 3 - 3 Rochdale League Two
Mar 29, 2022 Rochdale 2 - 0 Carlisle League Two
Mar 01, 2022 Carlisle 2 - 0 Rochdale League Two
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Carlisle to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Carlisle Power 42
Rochdale Power 49
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Carlisle Position

-2

Position Gap

1

Rochdale Position
Home Win Rate: 63%
Away Win Rate: 79%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.