AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Ligue 1 Oct 26, 2025

Lille

Home
VS
14:00

Metz

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Lille Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Metz Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 90%
Market 50%
Combined: 58% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 4.50 - 0.97
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.0 Position gap: 13 places
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Lille Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Metz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
38%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 3-2 (3%) 2-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Lille Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 23 Lille vs PAOK 3-4
Oct 19 Lille vs Nantes 0-2
Oct 05 Lille vs Paris Sai… 1-1
Oct 02 Lille vs AS Roma 0-1
Sep 28 Lille vs Lyon 0-1
Sep 25 Lille vs Brann 2-1
Sep 20 Lille vs Lens 3-0
Sep 14 Lille vs Toulouse 2-1
Aug 30 Lille vs Lorient 1-7
Aug 24 Lille vs Monaco 1-0
Metz Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 19 Metz vs Toulouse 4-0
Oct 04 Metz vs Marseille 0-3
Sep 28 Metz vs LE Havre … 0-0
Sep 21 Metz vs Monaco 5-2
Sep 14 Metz vs Angers 1-1
Aug 31 Metz vs Paris FC 3-2
Aug 23 Metz vs Lyon 3-0
Aug 17 Metz vs Strasbourg 0-1
Aug 09 Metz vs 1899 Hoff… 8-0
May 29 Metz vs Reims 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Metz struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 28, 2024 Metz 1 - 2 Lille Ligue 1
Apr 28, 2024 Metz 1 - 2 Lille Pro League
Dec 03, 2023 Lille 2 - 0 Metz Ligue 1
Dec 03, 2023 Lille 2 - 0 Metz Pro League
Feb 18, 2022 Lille 0 - 0 Metz Ligue 1
Aug 08, 2021 Metz 3 - 3 Lille Ligue 1
Apr 09, 2021 Metz 0 - 2 Lille Ligue 1
Sep 13, 2020 Lille 1 - 0 Metz Ligue 1
Final Verdict

ELITE: Lille to win (92% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0 92% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_15+
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Lille Power 37
Metz Power 22
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Lille Position

+13

Position Gap

18

Metz Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.