AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Championship Oct 04, 2025

ST Johnstone

Home
VS
14:00

Ayr Utd

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
ST Johnstone Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Ayr Utd Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 61%
Market 50%
Combined: 62% Draw Risk: 22%
xG: 4.36 - 0.48
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.4 vs 0.5
Score Prediction Analysis
ST Johnstone Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
6%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
19%
Ayr Utd Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
62%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (11%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 1-0 (3%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
ST Johnstone Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 ST Johnst… vs Queen's P… 1-2
Sep 23 ST Johnst… vs Airdrieon… 1-2
Sep 19 ST Johnst… vs Dunfermli… 2-1
Sep 13 ST Johnst… vs Raith Rov… 0-2
Aug 30 ST Johnst… vs Morton 1-1
Aug 23 ST Johnst… vs Arbroath 3-0
Aug 16 ST Johnst… vs Motherwell 0-1
Aug 08 ST Johnst… vs Ross Coun… 0-1
Aug 02 ST Johnst… vs Partick 5-1
Jul 26 ST Johnst… vs Elgin City 8-0
Ayr Utd Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 Ayr Utd vs Airdrieon… 4-2
Sep 23 Ayr Utd vs Dunfermli… 0-1
Sep 13 Ayr Utd vs Ross Coun… 1-1
Aug 30 Ayr Utd vs Queen's P… 1-1
Aug 23 Ayr Utd vs Morton 2-2
Aug 16 Ayr Utd vs Partick 2-0
Aug 09 Ayr Utd vs Raith Rov… 0-1
Aug 01 Ayr Utd vs Arbroath 1-1
Jul 27 Ayr Utd vs St. Mirren 2-1
Jul 22 Ayr Utd vs Alloa Ath… 3-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • ST Johnstone in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 25, 2023 ST Johnstone 1 - 2 Ayr Utd League Cup
Jul 23, 2022 ST Johnstone 1 - 0 Ayr Utd League Cup
Final Verdict

STANDARD: ST Johnstone to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
ST Johnstone Power 0
Ayr Utd Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

ST Johnstone Position

+3

Position Gap

4

Ayr Utd Position
Home Win Rate: 54%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.