KNVB Beker · Jan 14, 2025 17:45
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
Ajax
PWR 67
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
2 - 0
FT
Ajax
PWR 67
47% H
25% D
28% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (63% confidence)
Prediction
2-2
Score
63%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (22%)
0-0 (19%)
2-0 (13%)
1-1 (11%)
0-1 (10%)
2-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 2-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk17%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Strong home team = lower draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 1.8% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack85
Defense55
Goals/G2.4
Conc/G1.3
Attack100
Defense39
Goals/G3.0
Conc/G1.8
AZ Alkmaar Form
DWWWW
STABLE
Ajax Form
WWWWL
UP
Score & Markets
Over 2.524%
BTTS28%
Under 2.576%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Ajax Goals
0
60%
1
31%
2
8%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
AZ Alkmaarvs
0.52
AjaxDecision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum69%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
AZ Alkmaar+4
Gap#6
Ajax
WR 64% 30 pts
WR 63% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 30 |
| Ajax | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 15 |
AZ Alkmaar
18.0%
| Jan 11 | AZ Alkm… v PSV Ein… | 2-2 |
| Dec 21 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 1-0 |
| Dec 21 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 1-0 |
| Dec 18 | AZ Alkm… v Groning… | 3-1 |
| Dec 15 | AZ Alkm… v NAC Bre… | 1-2 |
| Dec 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 2-1 |
| Dec 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 2-1 |
| Dec 01 | AZ Alkm… v Heracles | 1-0 |
| Nov 24 | AZ Alkm… v Sparta … | 1-2 |
| Nov 10 | AZ Alkm… v Willem … | 1-2 |
Ajax
16.0%
| Jan 11 | Ajax v Waalwijk | 2-1 |
| Dec 22 | Ajax v Sparta … | 0-2 |
| Dec 19 | Ajax v Telstar | 2-0 |
| Dec 15 | Ajax v Almere … | 3-0 |
| Dec 08 | Ajax v AZ Alkm… | 2-1 |
| Dec 08 | Ajax v AZ Alkm… | 2-1 |
| Dec 04 | Ajax v Utrecht | 2-2 |
| Dec 04 | Ajax v Utrecht | 2-2 |
| Dec 01 | Ajax v Nijmegen | 1-2 |
| Nov 24 | Ajax v Zwolle | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Oct 08, 2023 | Ajax | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| May 06, 2023 | Ajax | 0-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Sep 18, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| May 08, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | Ajax |
| Mar 03, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 0-2 | Ajax |
Key Factors
AZ Alkmaar in strong form (4W in last 5)
Ajax in strong form (4W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.