Liga MX · Apr 20, 2025 01:05
Toluca
PWR 35
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
Toluca
PWR 35
2 - 2
FT
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
49% H
24% D
27% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Toluca to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (21%)
2-0 (18%)
0-0 (12%)
3-0 (11%)
1-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
1X2H
Over/UnderOVER_25
BTTSBTTS_YES
LOST - Actual: 2-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 3 rules · 72%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_SCORINGAWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Toluca Form
WWWWL
UP
Cruz Azul Form
WDWWL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.534%
BTTS25%
Under 2.566%
Toluca Goals
0
18%
1
31%
2
27%
3
15%
4
7%
Cruz Azul Goals
0
69%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Tolucavs
0.37
Cruz AzulDecision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum85%
Standings44%
Market50%
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#5
Toluca-3
Gap#2
Cruz Azul
WR 100% 8 pts
WR 50% 9 pts
Toluca
16.0%
| Apr 17 | Toluca v Atletic… | 0-1 |
| Apr 13 | Toluca v Atlas | 2-3 |
| Apr 07 | Toluca v Santos … | 2-1 |
| Mar 15 | Toluca v Puebla | 0-3 |
| Mar 01 | Toluca v Club Am… | 3-0 |
| Feb 02 | Toluca v Tigres … | 1-0 |
| Jan 19 | Toluca v Monterr… | 1-1 |
| Nov 30 | Toluca v Club Am… | 0-2 |
| Nov 28 | Toluca v Club Am… | 2-0 |
| Nov 10 | Toluca v Club Am… | 4-0 |
Cruz Azul
14.0%
| Apr 16 | Cruz Az… v León FC | 2-1 |
| Apr 13 | Cruz Az… v Club Am… | 0-0 |
| Apr 06 | Cruz Az… v U.N.A.M… | 3-2 |
| Mar 30 | Cruz Az… v Guadala… | 0-1 |
| Feb 16 | Cruz Az… v Tigres … | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Cruz Az… v Puebla | 1-1 |
| Jan 18 | Cruz Az… v FC Juar… | 1-0 |
| Jan 12 | Cruz Az… v Atlas | 1-1 |
| Nov 10 | Cruz Az… v Tigres … | 1-1 |
| Nov 07 | Cruz Az… v Atlas | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Jul 21, 2024 | Cruz Azul | 1-1 | Toluca |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Toluca | 0-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Jul 08, 2023 | Cruz Azul | 0-2 | Toluca |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Toluca | 3-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Toluca | 1-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Cruz Azul | 2-3 | Toluca |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Toluca | 1-4 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Cruz Azul | 4-0 | Toluca |
Key Factors
Toluca in strong form (4W in last 5)
Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.