Liga MX · Apr 28, 2024 01:00
Toluca
PWR 35
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
Toluca
PWR 35
0 - 1
FT
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
47% H
25% D
28% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (26%)
0-0 (23%)
2-0 (15%)
1-1 (9%)
0-1 (8%)
3-0 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 0-1
Stability Protocol
STANDARD · 2 rules · 55%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy56%
HOME_FORMAWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 2)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Toluca Form
WLWWW
STABLE
Cruz Azul Form
DWWDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.518%
BTTS20%
Under 2.582%
Toluca Goals
0
32%
1
37%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Cruz Azul Goals
0
71%
1
24%
2
4%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Tolucavs
0.34
Cruz AzulDecision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum72%
Standings44%
Market50%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#5
Toluca-3
Gap#2
Cruz Azul
WR 100% 8 pts
WR 50% 9 pts
Toluca
16.0%
| Apr 20 | Toluca v Atletic… | 1-5 |
| Apr 14 | Toluca v Club Am… | 5-1 |
| Apr 07 | Toluca v Atlas | 4-1 |
| Mar 02 | Toluca v Tigres … | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Toluca v Santos … | 1-0 |
| Feb 19 | Toluca v Monterr… | 0-0 |
| Jan 27 | Toluca v Puebla | 1-1 |
| Nov 06 | Toluca v Santos … | 3-1 |
| Nov 01 | Toluca v Puebla | 0-1 |
| Oct 05 | Toluca v Tigres … | 2-2 |
Cruz Azul
16.0%
| Apr 22 | Cruz Az… v Atlas | 2-2 |
| Apr 13 | Cruz Az… v Puebla | 0-1 |
| Apr 07 | Cruz Az… v Monterr… | 2-1 |
| Mar 31 | Cruz Az… v U.N.A.M… | 0-0 |
| Mar 03 | Cruz Az… v Guadala… | 3-0 |
| Feb 22 | Cruz Az… v León FC | 2-3 |
| Feb 18 | Cruz Az… v Tigres … | 1-0 |
| Jan 20 | Cruz Az… v FC Juar… | 0-0 |
| Nov 13 | Cruz Az… v Puebla | 1-2 |
| Nov 05 | Cruz Az… v Guadala… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Jul 08, 2023 | Cruz Azul | 0-2 | Toluca |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Toluca | 3-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Toluca | 1-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Cruz Azul | 2-3 | Toluca |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Toluca | 1-4 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Cruz Azul | 4-0 | Toluca |
Key Factors
Toluca in strong form (4W in last 5)
Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.