Primera DivisiĂłn - Clausura · Nov 17, 2024 21:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
Defensor Sporting
PWR 45
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 62
2 - 0
FT
Defensor Sporting
PWR 45
49% H
24% D
27% A
Final Verdict
ELITE: Peñarol Montevideo to win (95% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
95%
Confidence
ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (29%)
0-0 (25%)
2-0 (17%)
1-1 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
0-1 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 2-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 3 rules · 72%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk17%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEPOINTS_GAPHOME_TOP_POSITION
AH: AH -0.5 - Low draw risk
AH_05
Standings data available (Tier 2)Strong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack55
Defense71
Goals/G1.6
Conc/G0.8
Attack34
Defense63
Goals/G1.0
Conc/G1.1
Peñarol Montev… Form
WDWWW
STABLE
Defensor Sport… Form
WWDDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.516%
BTTS14%
Under 2.584%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
32%
1
37%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Defensor Sp… Goals
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.23
Defensor Sport…Decision Breakdown
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum79%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
Peñarol Mon…+7
Gap#8
Defensor Sp…
WR 60% 122 pts
WR 39% 43 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Montevi… | 60 | 36 | 14 | 10 | 95 | 49 | 122 |
| Defensor Sporti… | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 33 | 43 |
Peñarol Montev…
18.0%
| Nov 14 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 0-2 |
| Nov 13 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Nov 03 | Peñarol… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Nov 03 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 2-1 |
| Oct 21 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Oct 19 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-0 |
| Sep 30 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 0-0 |
| Aug 04 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Jul 28 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 2-0 |
Defensor Sport…
16.0%
| Nov 14 | Defenso… v Progreso | 3-0 |
| Nov 10 | Defenso… v Fenix | 1-0 |
| Nov 08 | Defenso… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Nov 04 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 1-1 |
| Oct 24 | Defenso… v Racing … | 1-0 |
| Oct 21 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
| Jul 27 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 1-0 |
| Jul 19 | Defenso… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Jul 14 | Defenso… v Fenix | 1-2 |
| Jul 07 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Oct 21, 2024 | Defensor Spor… | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (4W in last 5)
Defensor Sporting in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.