AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Super Copa Jan 31, 2024

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
23:30

Defensor Sporting

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Defensor Sporting Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 82%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 1.60 - 0.44
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.4
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Defensor Sporting Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (21%) 2-0 (17%) 0-0 (13%) 1-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Under 2.5 Goals 67%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 16 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Dec 13 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 2-0
Dec 09 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Dec 06 Peñarol M… vs Rangers FC 0-0
Dec 06 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 2-1
Dec 03 Peñarol M… vs Deportivo… 0-2
Dec 02 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 1-1
Nov 29 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-0
Nov 28 Peñarol M… vs Fenix 0-1
Nov 25 Peñarol M… vs Plaza Col… 0-0
Defensor Sporting Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 07 Defensor … vs Danubio 0-2
Dec 04 Defensor … vs Club Naci… 1-0
Nov 30 Defensor … vs River Pla… 0-1
Nov 25 Defensor … vs Deportivo… 2-1
Nov 20 Defensor … vs Boston Ri… 2-0
Nov 15 Defensor … vs Cerrito 1-1
Nov 03 Defensor … vs Progreso 3-1
Oct 26 Defensor … vs Progreso 1-1
Feb 11 Defensor … vs Progreso 3-3
Aug 19 Defensor … vs Progreso 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Defensor Sporting struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Defensor Sporting Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.