Copa Uruguay · Feb 05, 2024 23:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Boston River
PWR 41
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
2 - 0
FT
Boston River
PWR 41
53% H
23% D
24% A
Final Verdict
ELITE: Peñarol Montevideo to win (95% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
95%
Confidence
ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (20%)
1-0 (18%)
3-0 (15%)
0-0 (8%)
2-1 (6%)
1-1 (5%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 2-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 2 rules · 71%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk17%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_TOP_POSITION
AH: AH -0.5 - Low draw risk
AH_05
Standings data available (Tier 2)Strong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 2)
Power & Form
Attack65
Defense55
Goals/G1.9
Conc/G1.3
Attack23
Defense65
Goals/G0.7
Conc/G1.0
Peñarol Montev… Form
WLWLD
STABLE
Boston River Form
LLLWL
DOWN
Score & Markets
Over 2.544%
BTTS22%
Under 2.556%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
11%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Boston River Goals
0
76%
1
21%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.28
Boston RiverDecision Breakdown
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum93%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
Peñarol Mon…+6
Gap#8
Boston River
WR 71% 15 pts
WR 33% 3 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Montevi… | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
| Boston River | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Jan 31 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 1-0 |
| Dec 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Dec 13 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Dec 09 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Dec 06 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Dec 06 | Peñarol… v River P… | 2-1 |
| Dec 03 | Peñarol… v Deporti… | 0-2 |
| Dec 02 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-1 |
| Nov 29 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-0 |
| Nov 28 | Peñarol… v Fenix | 0-1 |
Boston River
4.0%
| Dec 08 | Boston … v Plaza C… | 3-2 |
| Dec 03 | Boston … v Cerro L… | 0-1 |
| Nov 29 | Boston … v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Nov 24 | Boston … v Atletic… | 2-0 |
| Nov 20 | Boston … v Defenso… | 2-0 |
| Nov 16 | Boston … v La Luz | 1-2 |
| Oct 24 | Boston … v Danubio | 1-1 |
| Oct 19 | Boston … v Club Na… | 2-0 |
| Sep 02 | Boston … v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Jul 16 | Boston … v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Nov 29, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Boston River |
| Sep 02, 2023 | Boston River | 0-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Boston River |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Boston River |
| Oct 12, 2022 | Boston River | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
Key Factors
Boston River struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.