AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Mar 15, 2024

Newcastle Jets

Home
VS
08:45

Adelaide United

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Newcastle Jets Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Adelaide United Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.36 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 0.6
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle Jets Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
12%
Adelaide United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (15%) 1-0 (13%) 3-0 (12%) 2-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 39%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
Newcastle Jets Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 09 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 2-2
Feb 25 Newcastle… vs Macarthur… 2-2
Feb 11 Newcastle… vs Western S… 3-3
Jan 27 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 1-2
Jan 23 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 3-1
Jan 19 Newcastle… vs Sydney 4-0
Jan 14 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 3-2
Jan 05 Newcastle… vs Macarthur… 1-1
Dec 09 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 0-3
Dec 03 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 0-2
Adelaide United Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 09 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 1-2
Mar 03 Adelaide … vs Wellingto… 3-2
Feb 24 Adelaide … vs Western S… 1-2
Feb 09 Adelaide … vs Perth Glo… 3-3
Feb 03 Adelaide … vs Central C… 0-4
Jan 25 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 1-0
Jan 08 Adelaide … vs Macarthur… 1-1
Jan 04 Adelaide … vs Wellingto… 2-2
Dec 30 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 2-0
Dec 15 Adelaide … vs Western S… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Adelaide United struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Newcastle Jets to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle Jets Power 0
Adelaide United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Newcastle Jets Position

+4

Position Gap

5

Adelaide United Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.