AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Mar 23, 2024

Newcastle Jets Women

Home
VS
05:00

Melbourne Victory Women

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Newcastle Jets Women Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Melbourne Victory Women Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 51%
xG: 2.34 - 1.67
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 1.7
High draw risk (51%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle Jets Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
12%
Melbourne Victory Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
19%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%) 2-2 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 1-2 (6%) 3-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Under 2.5 Goals 28%
Newcastle Jets Women Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 17 Newcastle… vs Western U… 1-3
Mar 10 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 2-0
Mar 03 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 1-1
Feb 17 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 3-0
Feb 09 Newcastle… vs Western S… 2-1
Feb 04 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 3-2
Jan 28 Newcastle… vs Central C… 0-2
Jan 21 Newcastle… vs Sydney FC… 2-1
Jan 13 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 1-2
Jan 06 Newcastle… vs Canberra … 3-3
Melbourne Victory Women Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 17 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-0
Mar 10 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-4
Mar 03 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 5-3
Feb 16 Melbourne… vs Western S… 4-0
Feb 10 Melbourne… vs Central C… 1-1
Feb 03 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-2
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 1-1
Jan 20 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 2-3
Dec 30 Melbourne… vs Western S… 2-0
Dec 23 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne Victory Women in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 12, 2023 Melbourne Victory W… 4 - 0 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Dec 18, 2022 Melbourne Victory W… 5 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Feb 08, 2022 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 20, 2021 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 07, 2021 Melbourne Victory W… 4 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle Jets Women Power 0
Melbourne Victory Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Newcastle Jets Women Position

-2

Position Gap

7

Melbourne Victory Women Position
Home Win Rate: 29%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.