Copa Uruguay · Oct 16, 2025 00:00
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
0 - 2
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
43% H
25% D
32% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Defensor Sporting to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (17%)
1-0 (16%)
3-0 (13%)
2-1 (7%)
0-0 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 0-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 1 rules · 70%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy42%
HOME_TOP_POSITION
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskHigh draw risk (29.4%) - consider AHBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 1)
Power & Form
Attack48
Defense68
Goals/G1.4
Conc/G0.9
Attack65
Defense55
Goals/G1.9
Conc/G1.3
Defensor Sport… Form
LWWDW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev… Form
DDWWW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.547%
BTTS31%
Under 2.553%
Defensor Sp… Goals
0
11%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Peñarol Mon… Goals
0
65%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Defensor Sport…vs
0.43
Peñarol Montev…Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum91%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
Defensor Sp…+1
Gap#2
Peñarol Mon…
WR 55% 21 pts
WR 71% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporti… | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 21 |
| Peñarol Montevi… | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
Defensor Sport…
14.0%
| Oct 11 | Defenso… v Cerrito | 1-0 |
| Oct 06 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 2-1 |
| Oct 02 | Defenso… v Central… | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Defenso… v Miramar | 0-0 |
| Sep 19 | Defenso… v Danubio | 2-1 |
| Sep 13 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Sep 05 | Defenso… v Juventud | 1-0 |
| Aug 30 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Aug 23 | Defenso… v Plaza C… | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Defenso… v Racing … | 0-1 |
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Miramar | 2-2 |
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 2-2 |
| Oct 05 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 2-0 |
| Oct 03 | Peñarol… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 1-3 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-1 |
| Sep 24 | Peñarol… v Tacuare… | 1-2 |
| Sep 21 | Peñarol… v Juventud | 1-0 |
| Sep 20 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 3-1 |
| Sep 13 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Aug 30, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Defensor Spor… | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting in strong form (3W in last 5)
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.