AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera División - Clausura Nov 02, 2025

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
22:00

Defensor Sporting

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Defensor Sporting Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 60% Draw Risk: 20%
xG: 2.44 - 0.43
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 0.4
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Defensor Sporting Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
65%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (17%) 1-0 (14%) 3-0 (14%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (6%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 32%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 25 Peñarol M… vs Cerrito 2-0
Oct 20 Peñarol M… vs Plaza Col… 0-1
Oct 19 Peñarol M… vs Rangers FC 3-0
Oct 16 Peñarol M… vs Defensor … 0-2
Oct 11 Peñarol M… vs Miramar 2-2
Oct 11 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 2-2
Oct 05 Peñarol M… vs Danubio 2-0
Oct 03 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 0-1
Sep 27 Peñarol M… vs Cerro Lar… 1-3
Sep 27 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-1
Defensor Sporting Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 24 Defensor … vs Atletico … 0-1
Oct 19 Defensor … vs Progreso 2-3
Oct 16 Defensor … vs Peñarol M… 0-2
Oct 11 Defensor … vs Cerrito 1-0
Oct 06 Defensor … vs Wanderers 2-1
Oct 02 Defensor … vs Central E… 2-0
Sep 29 Defensor … vs Miramar 0-0
Sep 19 Defensor … vs Danubio 2-1
Sep 13 Defensor … vs Cerro Lar… 1-0
Sep 05 Defensor … vs Juventud 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Defensor Sporting struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 16, 2025 Defensor Sporting 0 - 2 Peñarol Montevideo Copa Uruguay
Aug 30, 2025 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Nov 17, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Oct 21, 2024 Defensor Sporting 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 27, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Jan 31, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Super Copa
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Defensor Sporting Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.