AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FAW Championship Feb 04, 2026

Penrhyncoch

Home
VS
19:45

Caersws

Away
AI Predictions 39.6% Confidence
Penrhyncoch Win
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
Caersws Win
39.6%
Away Win (40% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 38%
Market 42%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 44%
Asian Handicap: Level (0)
xG: 4.50 - 0.22
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.2 Asian Handicap: Level (0)
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Penrhyncoch Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Caersws Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
80%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (9%) 1-0 (4%) 3-1 (3%) 2-1 (2%) 0-0 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 20%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Penrhyncoch Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Penrhynco… vs Airbus UK 4-0
Jan 24 Penrhynco… vs Brickfiel… 1-0
Jan 10 Penrhynco… vs Gresford … 3-2
Dec 31 Penrhynco… vs Ruthin To… 1-1
Dec 27 Penrhynco… vs Guilsfield 0-1
Dec 05 Penrhynco… vs Newtown A… 1-1
Nov 29 Penrhynco… vs Buckley T… 6-0
Nov 22 Penrhynco… vs Caernarfo… 4-0
Nov 08 Penrhynco… vs Brickfiel… 4-1
Nov 01 Penrhynco… vs Rhyl 3-1
Caersws Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Caersws vs Ruthin To… 0-1
Jan 24 Caersws vs Holyhead … 2-2
Jan 01 Caersws vs Newtown A… 1-0
Dec 26 Caersws vs Mold Alex… 0-2
Dec 13 Caersws vs Ruthin To… 5-1
Dec 06 Caersws vs Flint Mou… 3-0
Nov 08 Caersws vs Gresford … 3-1
Nov 01 Caersws vs Buckley T… 4-3
Oct 25 Caersws vs Guilsfield 0-0
Oct 11 Caersws vs Llandudno 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Caersws in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 01, 2025 Caersws 1 - 2 Penrhyncoch FAW Championsh…
Feb 18, 2025 Penrhyncoch 4 - 1 Caersws FAW Championsh…
Sep 17, 2022 Penrhyncoch 1 - 1 Caersws Welsh Cup
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Penrhyncoch Power 0
Caersws Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

15

Penrhyncoch Position

-6

Position Gap

9

Caersws Position
Home Win Rate: 22%
Away Win Rate: 27%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.