AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Azerbaijan Premier League Oct 26, 2025

Qarabağ FK

Home
VS
14:30

Şamaxı

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Qarabağ FK Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Şamaxı Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 72%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 33%
xG: 1.38 - 0.59
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.6 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Qarabağ FK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Şamaxı Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (19%) 0-0 (14%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Under 2.5 Goals 69%
Qarabağ FK Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 22 Qarabağ FK vs Athletic … 3-1
Oct 17 Qarabağ FK vs Turan Tov… 1-2
Oct 04 Qarabağ FK vs Kəpəz 1-0
Oct 01 Qarabağ FK vs FC Copenh… 2-0
Sep 26 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 2-0
Sep 21 Qarabağ FK vs Araz 0-5
Sep 16 Qarabağ FK vs Benfica 2-3
Sep 12 Qarabağ FK vs Zira 1-1
Aug 31 Qarabağ FK vs Karvan 0-2
Aug 27 Qarabağ FK vs Ferencvár… 2-3
Şamaxı Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 17 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 1-4
Oct 05 Şamaxı vs Qabala 0-1
Sep 27 Şamaxı vs Araz 1-1
Sep 19 Şamaxı vs Zira 2-1
Sep 14 Şamaxı vs Karvan 3-0
Aug 29 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 1-1
Aug 24 Şamaxı vs Sabah FA 1-2
Aug 16 Şamaxı vs Neftchi B… 1-1
May 24 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 0-1
May 17 Şamaxı vs Araz 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Qarabağ FK in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 24, 2025 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 17, 2025 Qarabağ FK 3 - 2 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Dec 19, 2024 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 27, 2024 Qarabağ FK 3 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 02, 2023 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 31, 2023 Qarabağ FK 3 - 1 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 30, 2022 Şamaxı 0 - 4 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 27, 2022 Qarabağ FK 4 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 15, 2022 Qarabağ FK 8 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Qarabağ FK to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Qarabağ FK Power 0
Şamaxı Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Qarabağ FK Position

+5

Position Gap

7

Şamaxı Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.