AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Nov 16, 2025

Wellington Phoenix Women

Home
VS
03:00

Newcastle Jets Women

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Women Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Newcastle Jets Women Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 63%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 45%
xG: 2.19 - 1.88
Key Insights
Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Newcastle Jets Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 2-2 (7%) 1-1 (7%) 1-2 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 3-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 26%
Wellington Phoenix Women Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 08 Wellingto… vs Canberra … 1-1
Apr 20 Wellingto… vs Western U… 1-1
Apr 13 Wellingto… vs Canberra … 1-0
Mar 30 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 0-1
Mar 22 Wellingto… vs Central C… 0-2
Mar 15 Wellingto… vs Sydney FC… 2-1
Mar 09 Wellingto… vs Western S… 2-1
Mar 02 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 1-3
Feb 16 Wellingto… vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Feb 02 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Newcastle Jets Women Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 02 Newcastle… vs Canberra … 1-2
Apr 19 Newcastle… vs Central C… 1-2
Apr 11 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 4-1
Mar 30 Newcastle… vs Western U… 0-2
Mar 21 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 4-3
Mar 16 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 2-3
Mar 08 Newcastle… vs Sydney FC… 1-0
Mar 01 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Feb 14 Newcastle… vs Western S… 4-1
Feb 08 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Wellington Phoenix Women struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Newcastle Jets Women struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 19, 2025 Wellington Phoenix … 3 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Nov 17, 2024 Newcastle Jets Women 1 - 0 Wellington Phoenix … W-League
Feb 04, 2024 Newcastle Jets Women 3 - 2 Wellington Phoenix … W-League
Dec 23, 2023 Wellington Phoenix … 2 - 0 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Mar 25, 2023 Newcastle Jets Women 3 - 2 Wellington Phoenix … W-League
Dec 27, 2021 Wellington Phoenix … 0 - 1 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Dec 10, 2021 Newcastle Jets Women 5 - 1 Wellington Phoenix … W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Wellington Phoenix Women to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Women Power 0
Newcastle Jets Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Wellington Phoenix Women Position

+6

Position Gap

9

Newcastle Jets Women Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.