AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie B Mar 03, 2024

Bari

Home
VS
15:15

Spezia

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Bari Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Spezia Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 2.15 - 0.55
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 0.6
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Bari Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Spezia Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
58%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (16%) 1-0 (14%) 3-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 0-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 37%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
Bari Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 27 Bari vs Catanzaro 2-0
Feb 27 Bari vs Catanzaro 2-0
Feb 24 Bari vs Sudtirol 1-0
Feb 24 Bari vs Sudtirol 1-0
Feb 17 Bari vs FeralpiSa… 1-0
Feb 10 Bari vs Lecce 3-1
Feb 02 Bari vs Palermo 3-0
Feb 02 Bari vs Palermo 3-0
Jan 27 Bari vs Reggiana … 0-2
Jan 21 Bari vs Ascoli 2-2
Spezia Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 28 Spezia vs FeralpiSa… 0-2
Feb 25 Spezia vs Monza 0-0
Feb 25 Spezia vs Monza 0-0
Feb 17 Spezia vs Cittadella 4-2
Feb 11 Spezia vs Ternana 1-1
Feb 03 Spezia vs Catanzaro 1-1
Jan 27 Spezia vs Pisa 2-3
Jan 20 Spezia vs Cremonese 0-1
Jan 13 Spezia vs Como 4-0
Dec 26 Spezia vs Monza 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Bari struggling (4L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 15, 2023 Spezia 1 - 0 Bari Serie B
Dec 15, 2023 Spezia 1 - 0 Bari Pro League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Bari to win (50% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 50% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Bari Power 27
Spezia Power 30
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

19

Bari Position

-2

Position Gap

17

Spezia Position
Home Win Rate: 27%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.