USL Championship · Nov 09, 2025 02:00
New Mexico United
PWR 50
Orange County SC
PWR 46
New Mexico United
PWR 50
2 - 1
FT
Orange County SC
PWR 46
47% H
25% D
28% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
3-1 (8%)
2-1 (8%)
3-0 (6%)
2-0 (6%)
3-2 (5%)
2-2 (5%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 2-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk43%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar - high draw probabilityClose positions = higher draw riskBoth mid-table = higher draw riskSAME_STATS: WR diff only 8% = high draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff 8%, pos gap 3
Power & Form
Attack52
Defense53
Goals/G1.5
Conc/G1.3
Attack48
Defense53
Goals/G1.4
Conc/G1.3
New Mexico Uni… Form
WLWWD
STABLE
Orange County … Form
DWDWD
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.572%
BTTS70%
Under 2.528%
New Mexico … Goals
0
5%
1
14%
2
22%
3
22%
4
17%
Orange Coun… Goals
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Expected Goals (xG)
3.11
New Mexico Uni…vs
1.32
Orange County …Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum91%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#7
New Mexico …+3
Gap#10
Orange Coun…
WR 42% 50 pts
WR 34% 47 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Unit… | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 44 | 50 |
| Orange County SC | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 48 | 47 | 47 |
New Mexico Uni…
14.0%
| Nov 07 | New Mex… v Côte d'… | 1-0 |
| Nov 04 | New Mex… v Korea D… | 1-2 |
| Nov 02 | New Mex… v San Ant… | 2-0 |
| Oct 25 | New Mex… v Rhode I… | 2-1 |
| Oct 19 | New Mex… v Oakland… | 3-3 |
| Oct 15 | New Mex… v Ecuador | 1-1 |
| Oct 12 | New Mex… v Colombi… | 0-4 |
| Oct 12 | New Mex… v Orange … | 3-3 |
| Oct 05 | New Mex… v Phoenix… | 0-1 |
| Sep 28 | New Mex… v Upingto… | 2-1 |
Orange County …
14.0%
| Nov 03 | Orange … v Sacrame… | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Orange … v Indy El… | 2-1 |
| Oct 19 | Orange … v Louisvi… | 0-0 |
| Oct 16 | Orange … v San Ant… | 1-0 |
| Oct 12 | Orange … v New Mex… | 3-3 |
| Oct 05 | Orange … v El Paso… | 0-0 |
| Oct 02 | Orange … v Sacrame… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Orange … v Charles… | 2-2 |
| Sep 21 | Orange … v San Ant… | 3-1 |
| Sep 12 | Orange … v Upingto… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 12, 2025 | New Mexico Un… | 3-3 | Orange County… |
| May 18, 2025 | Orange County… | 0-3 | New Mexico Un… |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Orange County… | 0-0 | New Mexico Un… |
| Jul 04, 2024 | New Mexico Un… | 2-0 | Orange County… |
Key Factors
New Mexico United in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.