AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Super League 1 Sep 17, 2023

PAOK

Home
VS
17:30

Aris Thessaloniki

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
PAOK Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Aris Thessaloniki Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 2.78 - 1.39
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 1.4
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
PAOK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Aris Thessaloniki Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (6%) 2-0 (6%) 2-2 (6%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Under 2.5 Goals 28%
PAOK Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 03 PAOK vs OFI Crete 1-0
Aug 27 PAOK vs Kifisia 2-1
Jul 28 PAOK vs MTK Budap… 1-1
Jun 17 PAOK vs Makedonik… 3-1
May 26 PAOK vs Iraklis 1… 0-3
May 26 PAOK vs Zalaegers… 1-1
May 19 PAOK vs Puskás Ak… 0-2
May 04 PAOK vs Niki Volos 3-1
Apr 30 PAOK vs Aris Thes… 3-2
Mar 19 PAOK vs Aris Thes… 1-2
Aris Thessaloniki Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 03 Aris Thes… vs Asteras T… 3-2
May 14 Aris Thes… vs Panathina… 1-1
Apr 30 Aris Thes… vs PAOK 3-2
Apr 26 Aris Thes… vs Olympiako… 2-1
Apr 02 Aris Thes… vs Olympiako… 2-2
Mar 19 Aris Thes… vs PAOK 1-2
Jan 25 Aris Thes… vs Olympiako… 0-1
Jan 11 Aris Thes… vs Levadiakos 1-0
Jan 08 Aris Thes… vs Asteras T… 3-0
Jan 04 Aris Thes… vs PAOK 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • PAOK struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 30, 2023 PAOK 3 - 2 Aris Thessaloniki Super League 1
Mar 19, 2023 Aris Thessaloniki 1 - 2 PAOK Super League 1
Jan 04, 2023 PAOK 1 - 0 Aris Thessaloniki Super League 1
Sep 04, 2022 Aris Thessaloniki 0 - 0 PAOK Super League 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: PAOK to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
PAOK Power 0
Aris Thessaloniki Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

PAOK Position

+3

Position Gap

6

Aris Thessaloniki Position
Home Win Rate: 90%
Away Win Rate: 40%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.