AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Mar 16, 2025

AS Roma

Home
VS
15:00

Cagliari

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
AS Roma Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Cagliari Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 2.57 - 0.45
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.5 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AS Roma Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Cagliari Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (16%) 3-0 (14%) 1-0 (13%) 2-1 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 1-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
AS Roma Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 13 AS Roma vs Athletic … 3-1
Mar 13 AS Roma vs Sudan 0-0
Mar 09 AS Roma vs Empoli 0-1
Mar 06 AS Roma vs Athletic … 2-1
Mar 02 AS Roma vs Como 2-1
Feb 24 AS Roma vs Monza 4-0
Feb 20 AS Roma vs FC Porto 3-2
Feb 16 AS Roma vs Parma 0-1
Feb 13 AS Roma vs FC Porto 1-1
Feb 09 AS Roma vs Venezia 0-1
Cagliari Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 07 Cagliari vs Genoa 1-1
Mar 02 Cagliari vs Bologna 2-1
Feb 23 Cagliari vs Juventus 0-1
Feb 15 Cagliari vs Atalanta 0-0
Feb 09 Cagliari vs Parma 2-1
Feb 03 Cagliari vs Lazio 1-2
Jan 24 Cagliari vs Torino 2-0
Jan 19 Cagliari vs Lecce 4-1
Jan 11 Cagliari vs AC Milan 1-1
Jan 05 Cagliari vs Monza 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • AS Roma in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 18, 2024 Cagliari 0 - 0 AS Roma Pro League
Aug 18, 2024 Cagliari 0 - 0 AS Roma Serie A
Feb 05, 2024 AS Roma 4 - 0 Cagliari Pro League
Feb 05, 2024 AS Roma 4 - 0 Cagliari Serie A
Oct 08, 2023 Cagliari 1 - 4 AS Roma Serie A
Jan 16, 2022 AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari Serie A
Oct 27, 2021 Cagliari 1 - 2 AS Roma Serie A
Apr 25, 2021 Cagliari 3 - 2 AS Roma Serie A
Dec 23, 2020 AS Roma 3 - 2 Cagliari Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: AS Roma to win (53% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 53% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AS Roma Power 41
Cagliari Power 34
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

AS Roma Position

+7

Position Gap

12

Cagliari Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.