AI Match Insights
Serie A Feb 05, 2024
AS Roma
HomeVS
19:45
Cagliari
AwayAI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
AS Roma Win
Draw
Cagliari Win
Home Win
(49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%)
M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)
M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
74%
Market
50%
Combined: 65%
Draw Risk: 13%
xG: 3.41 - 0.47
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.4 vs 0.5
Position gap: 7 places
Score Prediction Analysis
AS Roma Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Cagliari Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%)
2-0 (12%)
1-0 (7%)
3-1 (6%)
2-1 (6%)
1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
Under 2.5 Goals
39%
AS Roma Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 | AS Roma vs Salernita… | 1-2 |
| Jan 20 | AS Roma vs Verona | 2-1 |
| Jan 16 | AS Roma vs Saudi Ara… | 2-1 |
| Jan 14 | AS Roma vs AC Milan | 3-1 |
| Jan 14 | AS Roma vs AC Milan | 3-1 |
| Jan 10 | AS Roma vs Lazio | 1-0 |
| Jan 07 | AS Roma vs Atalanta | 1-1 |
| Jan 07 | AS Roma vs Atalanta | 1-1 |
| Jan 03 | AS Roma vs Cremonese | 2-1 |
| Dec 30 | AS Roma vs Juventus | 1-0 |
Cagliari Form 6.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26 | Cagliari vs Torino | 1-2 |
| Jan 26 | Cagliari vs Torino | 1-2 |
| Jan 21 | Cagliari vs Frosinone | 3-1 |
| Jan 14 | Cagliari vs Bologna | 2-1 |
| Jan 06 | Cagliari vs Lecce | 1-1 |
| Jan 02 | Cagliari vs AC Milan | 4-1 |
| Dec 30 | Cagliari vs Empoli | 0-0 |
| Dec 23 | Cagliari vs Verona | 2-0 |
| Dec 23 | Cagliari vs Verona | 2-0 |
| Dec 16 | Cagliari vs Napoli | 2-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- AS Roma struggling (3L in last 5) Home
- Cagliari struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08, 2023 | Cagliari | 1 - 4 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| Jan 16, 2022 | AS Roma | 1 - 0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Cagliari | 1 - 2 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| Apr 25, 2021 | Cagliari | 3 - 2 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| Dec 23, 2020 | AS Roma | 3 - 2 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: AS Roma to win (53% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
53% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
AS Roma Power
41
Cagliari Power
34
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
5
AS Roma Position+7
Position Gap12
Cagliari Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.