AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Nov 12, 2023

Melbourne Victory Women

Home
VS
04:00

Newcastle Jets Women

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Women Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Newcastle Jets Women Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 3.12 - 0.58
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.6
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Newcastle Jets Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
56%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 42%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Melbourne Victory Women Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 04 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-0
Oct 15 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-2
Apr 22 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 1-0
Apr 15 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 3-3
Mar 26 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-1
Mar 18 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 1-1
Mar 13 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 2-0
Feb 26 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 2-2
Feb 11 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-1
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 3-6
Newcastle Jets Women Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 05 Newcastle… vs Western S… 1-1
Oct 22 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 1-0
Oct 14 Newcastle… vs Central C… 0-1
Apr 01 Newcastle… vs Sydney FC… 4-0
Mar 25 Newcastle… vs Wellingto… 3-2
Mar 17 Newcastle… vs Adelaide … 2-2
Mar 04 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 0-4
Feb 12 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 4-0
Feb 05 Newcastle… vs Canberra … 0-3
Jan 28 Newcastle… vs Western S… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 18, 2022 Melbourne Victory W… 5 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Feb 08, 2022 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 20, 2021 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 07, 2021 Melbourne Victory W… 4 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Women Power 0
Newcastle Jets Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

7

Melbourne Victory Women Position

+2

Position Gap

9

Newcastle Jets Women Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.