AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Dec 18, 2022

Melbourne Victory Women

Home
VS
07:15

Newcastle Jets Women

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Women Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Newcastle Jets Women Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 25%
xG: 3.63 - 0.50
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.6 vs 0.5
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
10%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
19%
Newcastle Jets Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (11%) 3-1 (6%) 1-0 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Melbourne Victory Women Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 2-0
Mar 27 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 1-2
Mar 20 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-3
Mar 13 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-2
Mar 04 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 0-0
Feb 26 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 3-0
Feb 22 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 2-2
Feb 16 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 2-2
Feb 08 Melbourne… vs Newcastle… 0-1
Jan 02 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 2-4
Newcastle Jets Women Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 10 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 5-1
Dec 03 Newcastle… vs Perth Glo… 2-2
Nov 26 Newcastle… vs Western S… 4-2
Nov 19 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 2-1
Mar 07 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 4-0
Mar 04 Newcastle… vs Brisbane … 1-5
Mar 01 Newcastle… vs Melbourne… 2-0
Feb 25 Newcastle… vs Canberra … 3-0
Feb 19 Newcastle… vs Western S… 2-2
Feb 13 Newcastle… vs Sydney FC… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne Victory Women in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Newcastle Jets Women struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 08, 2022 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 20, 2021 Newcastle Jets Women 0 - 2 Melbourne Victory W… W-League
Feb 07, 2021 Melbourne Victory W… 4 - 2 Newcastle Jets Women W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Women Power 0
Newcastle Jets Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

7

Melbourne Victory Women Position

+2

Position Gap

9

Newcastle Jets Women Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.