AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Shield Cup Jun 29, 2025

Murang'a SEAL

Home
VS
09:00

Mara Sugar

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Murang'a SEAL Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Mara Sugar Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 2.89 - 0.65
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.9 vs 0.7
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Murang'a SEAL Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Mara Sugar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
52%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (12%) 3-0 (12%) 1-0 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 45%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Murang'a SEAL Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jun 15 Murang'a … vs Mara Sugar 0-0
May 25 Murang'a … vs Gor Mahia 2-2
May 18 Murang'a … vs Gor Mahia 0-0
May 01 Murang'a … vs Ulinzi St… 3-2
Apr 06 Murang'a … vs Bidco Uni… 1-1
Mar 15 Murang'a … vs Police 3-1
Mar 02 Murang'a … vs Mathare U… 1-1
Feb 19 Murang'a … vs Homeboyz 3-1
Feb 15 Murang'a … vs Ulinzi St… 1-2
Jan 25 Murang'a … vs AFC Leopa… 1-1
Mara Sugar Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jun 22 Mara Sugar vs Kariobang… 4-1
Jun 15 Mara Sugar vs Murang'a … 0-0
May 25 Mara Sugar vs Police 1-1
May 18 Mara Sugar vs Shabana 0-1
Apr 27 Mara Sugar vs Gor Mahia 4-0
Apr 06 Mara Sugar vs Tusker 1-1
Mar 28 Mara Sugar vs Mathare U… 2-1
Feb 19 Mara Sugar vs Posta Ran… 1-1
Feb 01 Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz 2-0
Jan 26 Mara Sugar vs Police 0-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jun 15, 2025 Mara Sugar 0 - 0 Murang'a SEAL FKF Premier Le…
Sep 29, 2024 Murang'a SEAL 1 - 1 Mara Sugar FKF Premier Le…
May 28, 2023 Mara Sugar 0 - 0 Murang'a SEAL Super League
Feb 04, 2023 Murang'a SEAL 3 - 0 Mara Sugar Super League
Jun 13, 2022 Murang'a SEAL 3 - 1 Mara Sugar Super League
Mar 06, 2022 Mara Sugar 1 - 2 Murang'a SEAL Super League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Murang'a SEAL to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Murang'a SEAL Power 0
Mara Sugar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.