AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Women's Championship Apr 20, 2025

Birmingham City Women

Home
VS
13:00

Durham Women

Away
AI Predictions 39.6% Confidence
Birmingham City Women Win
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
Durham Women Win
39.6%
Away Win (40% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 66%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.08 - 0.63
Key Insights
Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Birmingham City Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Durham Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
53%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 0-0 (18%) 1-1 (12%) 0-1 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Under 2.5 Goals 76%
Birmingham City Women Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 19 Birmingha… vs Portsmout… 1-3
Dec 08 Birmingha… vs Durham Wo… 0-1
Nov 03 Birmingha… vs Newcastle… 0-2
Sep 29 Birmingha… vs Durham Wo… 1-0
Sep 22 Birmingha… vs Portsmout… 4-0
Apr 28 Birmingha… vs Durham Wo… 1-0
Apr 14 Birmingha… vs Crystal P… 1-0
Nov 19 Birmingha… vs Durham Wo… 3-1
Sep 03 Birmingha… vs Crystal P… 1-2
Apr 23 Birmingha… vs Durham Wo… 1-2
Durham Women Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 30 Durham Wo… vs Portsmout… 6-0
Mar 16 Durham Wo… vs Newcastle… 3-1
Mar 02 Durham Wo… vs Sunderlan… 2-0
Jan 26 Durham Wo… vs Southampt… 1-0
Dec 11 Durham Wo… vs Sunderlan… 1-2
Dec 08 Durham Wo… vs Birmingha… 0-1
Nov 10 Durham Wo… vs Southampt… 1-1
Oct 20 Durham Wo… vs Sunderlan… 1-2
Oct 06 Durham Wo… vs Newcastle… 0-1
Sep 29 Durham Wo… vs Birmingha… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Durham Women in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
  • Birmingham City Women struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 08, 2024 Birmingham City Wom… 0 - 1 Durham Women FA Women's Cup
Sep 29, 2024 Durham Women 1 - 0 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Apr 28, 2024 Durham Women 1 - 0 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Nov 19, 2023 Birmingham City Wom… 3 - 1 Durham Women Women's Champi…
Apr 23, 2023 Durham Women 1 - 2 Birmingham City Wom… Women's Champi…
Apr 19, 2023 Birmingham City Wom… 1 - 0 Durham Women Women's Champi…
Feb 27, 2022 Durham Women 0 - 1 Birmingham City Wom… FA Women's Cup
Final Verdict

ELITE: Birmingham City Women to win (95% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 1-0 95% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_15+ SCORING_THREAT_HOME
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Birmingham City Women Power 54
Durham Women Power 31
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Birmingham City Women Position

+7

Position Gap

9

Durham Women Position
Home Win Rate: 71%
Away Win Rate: 14%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.