AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National Soccer League Apr 02, 2023

APR

Home
VS
13:00

Bugesera

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
APR Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Bugesera Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 2.15 - 0.36
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 0.4 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
APR Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Bugesera Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
70%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (19%) 1-0 (17%) 3-0 (13%) 0-0 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 27%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Under 2.5 Goals 56%
APR Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 11 APR vs Marines 2-3
Feb 26 APR vs Musanze 0-3
Feb 19 APR vs Etincelles 4-2
Dec 22 APR vs Etincelles 1-1
Dec 08 APR vs AS Kigali 0-0
Dec 02 APR vs Gasogi Un… 0-0
Nov 06 APR vs Gorilla 1-0
Oct 17 APR vs Police 1-1
Oct 12 APR vs Marines 2-0
Oct 07 APR vs Bugesera 2-1
Bugesera Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 11 Bugesera vs Police 2-1
Mar 04 Bugesera vs Mukura 0-1
Feb 17 Bugesera vs Rutsiro 3-0
Dec 21 Bugesera vs Rutsiro 2-1
Dec 11 Bugesera vs Mukura 0-1
Dec 04 Bugesera vs Kiyovu Sp… 1-0
Nov 06 Bugesera vs AS Kigali 0-0
Oct 13 Bugesera vs Police 2-1
Oct 07 Bugesera vs APR 2-1
Jun 13 Bugesera vs Police 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • APR in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Bugesera in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 07, 2022 Bugesera 2 - 1 APR National Socce…
Apr 17, 2022 Bugesera 0 - 0 APR National Socce…
Dec 12, 2021 APR 2 - 1 Bugesera National Socce…
Jun 10, 2021 Bugesera 0 - 3 APR National Socce…
May 11, 2021 APR 2 - 1 Bugesera National Socce…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: APR to win (64% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
APR Power 0
Bugesera Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

APR Position

+11

Position Gap

12

Bugesera Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 11%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.