Liga Portugal 2 · Feb 06, 2026 20:15
Chaves
PWR 35
Penafiel FC
PWR 35
Chaves
PWR 35
0 - 1
FT
Penafiel FC
PWR 35
39% H
26% D
35% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Chaves to win (63% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
63%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (17%)
1-0 (16%)
3-0 (12%)
2-1 (8%)
0-0 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 0-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy42%
Full data available (Tier 1)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Weak home team = higher draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 9.1% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Chaves Form
LDLLL
STABLE
Penafiel FC Form
DLLLW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.546%
BTTS33%
Under 2.554%
Chaves Goals
0
12%
1
25%
2
27%
3
19%
4
10%
Penafiel FC Goals
0
63%
1
29%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.14
Chavesvs
0.46
Penafiel FCDecision Breakdown
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum89%
Standings55%
Market58%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#10
Chaves+5
Gap#15
Penafiel FC
WR 18% 27 pts
WR 27% 23 pts
Chaves
2.0%
| Jan 31 | Chaves v Felguei… | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Chaves v Lusitân… | 2-2 |
| Jan 17 | Chaves v Benfica… | 1-0 |
| Jan 11 | Chaves v MarĂtimo | 2-3 |
| Dec 20 | Chaves v Portimo… | 0-1 |
| Dec 12 | Chaves v Oliveir… | 2-3 |
| Dec 07 | Chaves v Pacos F… | 2-0 |
| Nov 30 | Chaves v Torreen… | 0-2 |
| Nov 23 | Chaves v Sportin… | 0-0 |
| Nov 16 | Chaves v Leixões… | 0-1 |
Penafiel FC
6.0%
| Jan 30 | Penafie… v Leixões… | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Penafie… v Oliveir… | 2-1 |
| Jan 17 | Penafie… v Portimo… | 0-2 |
| Jan 04 | Penafie… v Pacos F… | 1-2 |
| Dec 21 | Penafie… v Torreen… | 1-0 |
| Dec 12 | Penafie… v FC Port… | 1-0 |
| Dec 05 | Penafie… v União d… | 1-0 |
| Nov 29 | Penafie… v Académi… | 2-0 |
| Nov 23 | Penafie… v MarĂtimo | 2-1 |
| Nov 08 | Penafie… v Sportin… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 0-2 | Chaves |
| May 15, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 0-0 | Chaves |
| Jan 04, 2025 | Chaves | 0-1 | Penafiel FC |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Penafiel FC | 1-2 | Chaves |
| Mar 06, 2022 | Penafiel FC | 2-1 | Chaves |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Chaves | 3-1 | Penafiel FC |
| Mar 29, 2021 | Chaves | 2-1 | Penafiel FC |
| Nov 09, 2020 | Penafiel FC | 1-0 | Chaves |
Key Factors
Chaves struggling (4L in last 5)
Penafiel FC struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.