Paulista - A3 · Apr 12, 2025 18:00
Monte Azul
PWR 43
SertĂŁozinho
PWR 39
Monte Azul
PWR 43
1 - 1
FT
SertĂŁozinho
PWR 39
41% H
26% D
33% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (14%)
1-0 (11%)
3-0 (11%)
2-1 (9%)
1-1 (7%)
3-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 1-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Large gap = lower draw riskWeak home team = higher draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 3.6% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack70
Defense30
Goals/G2.0
Conc/G2.0
Attack30
Defense63
Goals/G0.9
Conc/G1.1
Monte Azul Form
LWDDW
STABLE
SertĂŁozinho Form
WLWDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.555%
BTTS44%
Under 2.545%
Monte Azul Goals
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
SertĂŁozinho Goals
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
3%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40
Monte Azulvs
0.66
SertĂŁozinhoDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum90%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#22
Monte Azul-10
Gap#12
SertĂŁozinho
WR 25% 5 pts
WR 21% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Azul | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| SertĂŁozinho | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
Monte Azul
12.0%
| Apr 09 | Monte A… v Sertãoz… | 3-1 |
| Mar 15 | Monte A… v EC Leme… | 4-2 |
| Mar 09 | Monte A… v XV de J… | 2-2 |
| Mar 05 | Monte A… v Sertãoz… | 1-1 |
| Oct 12 | Monte A… v Votupor… | 1-0 |
| Oct 05 | Monte A… v Votupor… | 1-0 |
| Mar 10 | Monte A… v XV de P… | 4-2 |
| Feb 21 | Monte A… v Flumine… | 1-1 |
| Feb 10 | Monte A… v São Jos… | 0-2 |
| Mar 05 | Monte A… v Flumine… | 1-0 |
SertĂŁozinho
14.0%
| Apr 09 | Sertãoz… v Monte A… | 3-1 |
| Apr 04 | SertĂŁoz… v MarĂlia | 1-0 |
| Mar 29 | SertĂŁoz… v MarcĂli… | 2-0 |
| Mar 26 | Sertãoz… v Catandu… | 0-0 |
| Mar 21 | Sertãoz… v Catandu… | 0-2 |
| Mar 15 | Sertãoz… v Bandeir… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Sertãoz… v Rio Pre… | 1-1 |
| Mar 05 | Sertãoz… v Monte A… | 1-1 |
| Feb 26 | Sertãoz… v São Ber… | 0-0 |
| Feb 07 | Sertãoz… v Grêmio … | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Apr 09, 2025 | SertĂŁozinho | 3-1 | Monte Azul |
| Mar 05, 2025 | Monte Azul | 1-1 | SertĂŁozinho |
Key Factors
SertĂŁozinho in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.