AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Feb 09, 2026

FC Porto

Home
VS
20:45

Sporting CP

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
FC Porto Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Sporting CP Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 54%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 2.65 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.2
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Porto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Sporting CP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (15%) 0-0 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Under 2.5 Goals 51%
FC Porto Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 FC Porto vs Casa Pia … 2-0
Jan 29 FC Porto vs Rangers FC 0-0
Jan 26 FC Porto vs GIL Vicen… 3-0
Jan 22 FC Porto vs Plzen 1-1
Jan 18 FC Porto vs Guimaraes 0-1
Jan 14 FC Porto vs Benfica 1-0
Jan 04 FC Porto vs Santa Cla… 0-1
Dec 29 FC Porto vs AVS 2-0
Dec 22 FC Porto vs Alverca 0-3
Dec 18 FC Porto vs Famalicao 4-1
Sporting CP Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Sporting … vs AVS 0-0
Feb 01 Sporting … vs Nacional 2-1
Jan 28 Sporting … vs Athletic … 1-1
Jan 24 Sporting … vs Arouca 1-2
Jan 20 Sporting … vs Paris Sai… 2-1
Jan 20 Sporting … vs Mancheste… 3-2
Jan 16 Sporting … vs Casa Pia … 3-0
Jan 06 Sporting … vs Guimaraes 1-2
Jan 02 Sporting … vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
Dec 28 Sporting … vs Rio Ave FC 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Sporting CP in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 30, 2025 Sporting CP 1 - 2 FC Porto Primeira Liga
Jan 07, 2025 Sporting CP 1 - 0 FC Porto Taça da Liga
Aug 03, 2024 Sporting CP 3 - 4 FC Porto Super Cup
May 26, 2024 FC Porto 2 - 1 Sporting CP Taça de Portug…
Apr 28, 2024 FC Porto 2 - 2 Sporting CP Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: FC Porto to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Porto Power 0
Sporting CP Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

FC Porto Position

+1

Position Gap

2

Sporting CP Position
Home Win Rate: 89%
Away Win Rate: 80%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.