KNVB Beker · Jan 14, 2026 20:00
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
Ajax
PWR 67
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 68
6 - 0
FT
Ajax
PWR 67
35% H
27% D
38% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: AZ Alkmaar to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
3-2
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-2 (9%)
1-3 (8%)
0-2 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
0-3 (6%)
2-2 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 6-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk17%
Accuracy42%
Full data available (Tier 1)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Strong home team = lower draw risk
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 1.8% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack85
Defense55
Goals/G2.4
Conc/G1.3
Attack100
Defense39
Goals/G3.0
Conc/G1.8
AZ Alkmaar Form
WLDWD
STABLE
Ajax Form
WWDWW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.569%
BTTS67%
Under 2.531%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Ajax Goals
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
AZ Alkmaarvs
2.60
AjaxDecision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player40%
Momentum35%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
AZ Alkmaar+4
Gap#6
Ajax
WR 64% 30 pts
WR 63% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 30 |
| Ajax | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 15 |
AZ Alkmaar
12.0%
| Jan 10 | AZ Alkm… v FC Vole… | 1-0 |
| Dec 21 | AZ Alkm… v Fortuna… | 4-3 |
| Dec 18 | AZ Alkm… v Jagiell… | 0-0 |
| Dec 11 | AZ Alkm… v Drita | 0-3 |
| Dec 07 | AZ Alkm… v GO Ahea… | 2-2 |
| Dec 03 | AZ Alkm… v Zwolle | 1-3 |
| Nov 30 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 1-0 |
| Nov 27 | AZ Alkm… v Shelbou… | 2-0 |
| Nov 23 | AZ Alkm… v Heerenv… | 3-1 |
| Nov 09 | AZ Alkm… v PSV Ein… | 1-5 |
Ajax
18.0%
| Jan 11 | Ajax v Telstar | 2-3 |
| Jan 05 | Ajax v Seraing… | 4-0 |
| Dec 20 | Ajax v NEC Nij… | 2-2 |
| Dec 17 | Ajax v Excelsi… | 2-7 |
| Dec 14 | Ajax v Feyenoo… | 2-0 |
| Dec 10 | Ajax v Qarabağ… | 2-4 |
| Dec 06 | Ajax v Fortuna… | 1-3 |
| Dec 02 | Ajax v Groning… | 2-0 |
| Nov 25 | Ajax v Benfica | 0-2 |
| Nov 22 | Ajax v Excelsi… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ajax | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Ajax | 2-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Oct 08, 2023 | Ajax | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| May 06, 2023 | Ajax | 0-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Sep 18, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
Key Factors
Ajax in strong form (4W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.