Eredivisie · Mar 16, 2025 15:45
Ajax
PWR 35
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
Ajax
PWR 35
2 - 2
FT
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
49% H
24% D
27% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
3-0 (9%)
2-0 (8%)
3-1 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
1-0 (5%)
1-1 (4%)
1X2H
Over/UnderOVER_25
BTTSBTTS_YES
LOST - Actual: 2-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 1 rules · 70%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATE
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 1)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Ajax Form
LWLWW
STABLE
AZ Alkmaar Form
LWLDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.567%
BTTS56%
Under 2.533%
Ajax Goals
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
0
42%
1
36%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
Expected Goals (xG)
3.31
Ajaxvs
0.87
AZ AlkmaarDecision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum94%
Standings58%
Market50%
League Standings
#4
Ajax+2
Gap#6
AZ Alkmaar
WR 64% 38 pts
WR 46% 32 pts
Ajax
12.0%
| Mar 13 | Ajax v Eintrac… | 4-1 |
| Mar 09 | Ajax v Zwolle | 0-1 |
| Mar 06 | Ajax v Eintrac… | 1-2 |
| Mar 02 | Ajax v Almere … | 0-1 |
| Feb 23 | Ajax v GO Ahea… | 2-0 |
| Feb 20 | Ajax v Union S… | 1-2 |
| Feb 16 | Ajax v Heracles | 4-0 |
| Feb 13 | Ajax v Union S… | 0-2 |
| Feb 09 | Ajax v Fortuna… | 0-2 |
| Feb 02 | Ajax v Feyenoo… | 2-1 |
AZ Alkmaar
10.0%
| Mar 13 | AZ Alkm… v Tottenh… | 3-1 |
| Mar 06 | AZ Alkm… v Tottenh… | 1-0 |
| Mar 02 | AZ Alkm… v Heerenv… | 3-1 |
| Feb 27 | AZ Alkm… v Heracles | 2-2 |
| Feb 23 | AZ Alkm… v Fortuna… | 1-0 |
| Feb 20 | AZ Alkm… v Galatas… | 2-2 |
| Feb 13 | AZ Alkm… v Galatas… | 4-1 |
| Feb 09 | AZ Alkm… v Zwolle | 2-0 |
| Feb 06 | AZ Alkm… v Quick B… | 3-1 |
| Feb 02 | AZ Alkm… v Willem … | 0-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 14, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Dec 08, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-0 | Ajax |
| Oct 08, 2023 | Ajax | 1-2 | AZ Alkmaar |
| May 06, 2023 | Ajax | 0-0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Sep 18, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Ajax |
| May 08, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | Ajax |
| Mar 03, 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | 0-2 | Ajax |
Key Factors
Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.