Predictions Match Details
Eredivisie · May 06, 2023 19:00

Ajax
PWR 35
0 - 0
FT

AZ Alkmaar
PWR 35
45% H 25% D 30% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
3-2 (5%) 3-1 (5%) 2-2 (4%) 3-3 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 2-3 (3%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 0-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 1 rules · 70%
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATE
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests) AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 1)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Ajax Form WWDLW
STABLE
AZ Alkmaar Form WLWDW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.574%
BTTS88%
Under 2.526%
Ajax Goals
0
2%
1
9%
2
16%
3
21%
4
19%
AZ Alkmaar Goals
0
10%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Expected Goals (xG)
3.78
Ajax
vs
2.26
AZ Alkmaar
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum87%
Standings58%
Market50%
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#4
Ajax
+2
Gap
#6
AZ Alkmaar
WR 64% 38 pts WR 46% 32 pts
Ajax 14.0%
Apr 09 Ajax v Fortuna… 4-0
Apr 05 Ajax v Feyenoo… 1-2
Apr 02 Ajax v GO Ahea… 0-0
Mar 19 Ajax v Feyenoo… 2-3
Jan 29 Ajax v Excelsi… 1-4
Jan 26 Ajax v FC Vole… 1-1
Jan 22 Ajax v Feyenoo… 1-1
Dec 07 Ajax v FC Vole… 5-4
Oct 16 Ajax v Excelsi… 7-1
Oct 08 Ajax v FC Vole… 2-4
AZ Alkmaar 14.0%
Apr 16 AZ Alkm… v Fortuna… 0-3
Mar 19 AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… 2-1
Feb 10 AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… 5-0
Feb 04 AZ Alkm… v FC Vole… 1-1
Jan 25 AZ Alkm… v GO Ahea… 1-4
Jan 22 AZ Alkm… v Fortuna… 3-1
Jan 11 AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… 1-4
Oct 30 AZ Alkm… v FC Vole… 2-1
Oct 23 AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… 2-1
Sep 18 AZ Alkm… v Ajax 2-1
Head-to-Head (3)
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Ajax
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0-2 Ajax
Key Factors
Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5)
AZ Alkmaar in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.