FA Cup · Nov 29, 2024 19:45
Dumbarton
PWR 43
Alloa Athletic
PWR 22
Dumbarton
PWR 43
3 - 2
FT
Alloa Athletic
PWR 22
57% H
23% D
20% A
Final Verdict
ELITE: Dumbarton to win (95% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
95%
Confidence
ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Match Analyzer ELITE
Most Likely Scores:
2-0 (12%)
3-0 (11%)
1-0 (9%)
2-1 (8%)
3-1 (8%)
1-1 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 3-2
Stability Protocol
GOLD · 3 rules · 68%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk20%
Accuracy73%
POSITION_GAPHOME_FORMAWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line for draw protection
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)Large gap = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack75
Defense0
Goals/G2.1
Conc/G2.9
Attack31
Defense22
Goals/G0.9
Conc/G2.2
Dumbarton Form
WLDLW
STABLE
Alloa Athletic Form
LLLDL
DOWN
Score & Markets
Over 2.561%
BTTS47%
Under 2.539%
Dumbarton Goals
0
7%
1
18%
2
24%
3
22%
4
15%
Alloa Athle… Goals
0
50%
1
35%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.74
Dumbartonvs
0.69
Alloa AthleticDecision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum94%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#19
Dumbarton+66
Gap#85
Alloa Athle…
WR 57% 12 pts
WR 11% 3 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| Alloa Athletic | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 3 |
Dumbarton
10.0%
| Oct 26 | Dumbart… v Inverne… | 3-1 |
| Oct 05 | Dumbart… v Stenhou… | 1-3 |
| Sep 14 | Dumbart… v Alloa A… | 1-1 |
| Sep 07 | Dumbart… v Peterhe… | 1-0 |
| Aug 13 | Dumbart… v St. Mir… | 4-0 |
| Aug 10 | Dumbart… v Alloa A… | 3-3 |
| Aug 03 | Dumbart… v Inverne… | 1-1 |
| Jul 13 | Dumbart… v East Ki… | 1-1 |
| May 17 | Dumbart… v Spartans | 2-2 |
| May 14 | Dumbart… v Spartans | 2-1 |
Alloa Athletic
2.0%
| Nov 16 | Alloa A… v Inverne… | 1-0 |
| Nov 16 | Alloa A… v Elgin C… | 2-1 |
| Nov 12 | Alloa A… v Dunferm… | 1-0 |
| Nov 09 | Alloa A… v Queen o… | 1-1 |
| Nov 09 | Alloa A… v Spartans | 0-3 |
| Nov 09 | Alloa A… v Stenhou… | 1-1 |
| Nov 02 | Alloa A… v Edinbur… | 2-0 |
| Oct 27 | Alloa A… v Orange … | 3-2 |
| Oct 23 | Alloa A… v Tampa B… | 2-2 |
| Oct 19 | Alloa A… v Stenhou… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Sep 14, 2024 | Alloa Athletic | 1-1 | Dumbarton |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Dumbarton | 3-3 | Alloa Athletic |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Alloa Athletic | 4-5 | Dumbarton |
| May 13, 2023 | Dumbarton | 0-0 | Alloa Athletic |
| May 09, 2023 | Alloa Athletic | 6-0 | Dumbarton |
| Apr 08, 2023 | Alloa Athletic | 3-1 | Dumbarton |
| Apr 02, 2022 | Alloa Athletic | 2-3 | Dumbarton |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Dumbarton | 1-2 | Alloa Athletic |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Alloa Athletic | 1-2 | Dumbarton |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Dumbarton | 1-1 | Alloa Athletic |
Key Factors
Alloa Athletic struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.