AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sul-Matogrossense Feb 11, 2026

Águia Negra

Home
VS
23:30

Cr Aquidauana

Away
AI Predictions 48.0% Confidence
Águia Negra Win
48.0%
Draw
24.4%
Cr Aquidauana Win
27.6%
Home Win (48% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 32%
xG: 3.45 - 0.47
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.5 vs 0.5
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Águia Negra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
11%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Cr Aquidauana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (6%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Águia Negra Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Águia Neg… vs Dourados … 1-0
Jan 28 Águia Neg… vs Bataguassu 1-1
Jan 24 Águia Neg… vs Portugues… 1-2
Mar 23 Águia Neg… vs Ivinhema 4-1
Mar 16 Águia Neg… vs Ivinhema 0-1
Mar 09 Águia Neg… vs Dourados … 2-1
Mar 05 Águia Neg… vs Dourados … 2-1
Mar 02 Águia Neg… vs Tombense 3-2
Feb 23 Águia Neg… vs Portugues… 0-0
Jan 26 Águia Neg… vs Dourados … 3-0
Cr Aquidauana Form 5.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Cr Aquida… vs Bataguassu 1-1
Jan 31 Cr Aquida… vs Naviraien… 1-2
Jan 28 Cr Aquida… vs Operário … 3-0
Jan 24 Cr Aquida… vs Costa Rica 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Águia Negra struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Águia Negra Power 0
Cr Aquidauana Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Águia Negra Position

+3

Position Gap

8

Cr Aquidauana Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.