Copa De La Liga Auf · Jan 22, 2026 23:30
Club Nacional
PWR 35
Progreso
PWR 29
Club Nacional
PWR 35
1 - 1
FT
Progreso
PWR 29
51% H
24% D
25% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (25%)
2-0 (18%)
0-0 (17%)
3-0 (9%)
1-1 (8%)
2-1 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 1-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk41%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Close positions = higher draw riskWeak home team = higher draw riskBoth mid-table = higher draw riskElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 0.0% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack23
Defense77
Goals/G0.7
Conc/G0.7
Attack18
Defense65
Goals/G0.5
Conc/G1.0
Club Nacional Form
DDDDD
STABLE
Progreso Form
LDDLL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.525%
BTTS20%
Under 2.575%
Club Nacion… Goals
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
Progreso Goals
0
73%
1
23%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Club Nacionalvs
0.31
ProgresoDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum82%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#6
Club Nacion…+1
Gap#7
Progreso
WR 0% 3 pts
WR 0% 2 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Progreso | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Club Nacional
10.0%
| Jan 17 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 1-1 |
| Jan 14 | Club Na… v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Club Na… v Juventud | 0-0 |
| Sep 20 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
Progreso
4.0%
| Jan 19 | Progreso v Juventud | 0-1 |
| Jan 12 | Progreso v Defenso… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Progreso v Juventud | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Progreso v Atletic… | 0-5 |
| Oct 26 | Progreso v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Oct 19 | Progreso v Defenso… | 2-3 |
| Oct 10 | Progreso v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 05 | Progreso v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Progreso v Racing … | 0-0 |
| Sep 21 | Progreso v Rangers… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Aug 16, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Progreso |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Progreso | 1-5 | Club Nacional |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Progreso | 0-3 | Club Nacional |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Club Nacional | 0-0 | Progreso |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Club Nacional | 0-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2021 | Progreso | 1-3 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 18, 2021 | Progreso | 0-1 | Club Nacional |
| Aug 26, 2020 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Progreso |
Key Factors
Progreso struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.