AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Azerbaijan Premier League Feb 01, 2026

Qarabağ FK

Home
VS
14:30

Turan Tovuz

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Qarabağ FK Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Turan Tovuz Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 35%
Standings 51%
Market 64%
Combined: 39% Draw Risk: 36%
Asian Handicap: Home -1.5
xG: 0.72 - 1.85
Key Insights
Market confidence: 62% Asian Handicap: Home -1.5
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Qarabağ FK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Turan Tovuz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1 (14%) 0-2 (13%) 1-1 (10%) 1-2 (9%) 0-3 (8%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Under 2.5 Goals 54%
Qarabağ FK Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 28 Qarabağ FK vs Liverpool 2-0
Jan 24 Qarabağ FK vs Kəpəz 0-2
Jan 21 Qarabağ FK vs Eintracht… 3-2
Dec 21 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 1-2
Dec 18 Qarabağ FK vs Sabah FA 2-1
Dec 14 Qarabağ FK vs Araz 5-1
Dec 10 Qarabağ FK vs Ajax 2-4
Dec 06 Qarabağ FK vs Zira 1-1
Dec 03 Qarabağ FK vs Karvan 3-0
Nov 29 Qarabağ FK vs Karvan 2-0
Turan Tovuz Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 25 Turan Tov… vs Sumqayıt 2-1
Dec 19 Turan Tov… vs Kəpəz 0-2
Dec 13 Turan Tov… vs Sabah FA 1-3
Dec 08 Turan Tov… vs Qabala 0-0
Dec 02 Turan Tov… vs Şahdağ 1-2
Nov 28 Turan Tov… vs Neftchi B… 0-0
Nov 22 Turan Tov… vs Araz 1-1
Nov 08 Turan Tov… vs Zira 0-0
Nov 02 Turan Tov… vs Şamaxı 2-1
Oct 28 Turan Tov… vs Dinamo Ba… 0-5
Key Analysis Factors
  • Turan Tovuz in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
  • Qarabağ FK struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 17, 2025 Turan Tovuz 1 - 2 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Mar 28, 2025 Turan Tovuz 1 - 4 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 26, 2025 Qarabağ FK 1 - 2 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
Nov 01, 2024 Turan Tovuz 0 - 0 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 24, 2024 Qarabağ FK 0 - 1 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
May 17, 2024 Qarabağ FK 4 - 3 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
Mar 17, 2024 Turan Tovuz 1 - 3 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 20, 2023 Turan Tovuz 2 - 2 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 13, 2023 Qarabağ FK 3 - 0 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
May 28, 2023 Qarabağ FK 3 - 1 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Qarabağ FK to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Qarabağ FK Power 0
Turan Tovuz Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Qarabağ FK Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Turan Tovuz Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 63%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.