AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga de ExpansiĂłn MX Jan 12, 2024

Tepatitlán

Home
VS
01:05

Dorados

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Tepatitlán Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Dorados Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 71%
Market 50%
Combined: 64% Draw Risk: 17%
xG: 3.19 - 0.59
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 0.6 Position gap: 7 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Tepatitlán Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
13%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Dorados Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (12%) 3-1 (7%) 1-0 (7%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Tepatitlán Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 25 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 2-2
Sep 13 Tepatitlán vs Correcami… 2-1
Sep 10 Tepatitlán vs Dorados 1-2
Aug 06 Tepatitlán vs Atlante FC 2-2
Mar 31 Tepatitlán vs Atlante FC 0-0
Mar 26 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 0-2
Mar 15 Tepatitlán vs Correcami… 2-1
Mar 02 Tepatitlán vs Dorados 2-1
Sep 24 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 3-2
Aug 29 Tepatitlán vs Atlante FC 1-1
Dorados Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 16 Dorados vs Venados FC 4-1
Sep 10 Dorados vs Tepatitlán 1-2
Aug 16 Dorados vs Mineros d… 4-0
Aug 13 Dorados vs CancĂşn 1-0
Jul 31 Dorados vs CA La Paz 3-4
Apr 12 Dorados vs Venados FC 0-5
Mar 22 Dorados vs CA La Paz 1-1
Mar 02 Dorados vs Tepatitlán 2-1
Jan 18 Dorados vs CancĂşn 1-2
Jan 11 Dorados vs Mineros d… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Dorados struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 10, 2023 Dorados 1 - 2 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Mar 02, 2023 Dorados 2 - 1 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Jun 27, 2022 Tepatitlán 2 - 0 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Feb 16, 2022 Tepatitlán 2 - 0 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Dec 05, 2021 Dorados 1 - 0 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Dec 02, 2021 Tepatitlán 0 - 1 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tepatitlán to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tepatitlán Power 0
Dorados Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Tepatitlán Position

+7

Position Gap

15

Dorados Position
Home Win Rate: 36%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.