AI Match Insights

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Catarinense - 1 Feb 01, 2026

Criciúma

Home
VS
21:00

Chapecoense

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Criciúma Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Chapecoense Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 48%
Market 46%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 50%
Asian Handicap: Home -0.5
xG: 3.15 - 0.79
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.8 Asian Handicap: Home -0.5
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Criciúma Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Chapecoense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
45%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (10%) 2-0 (10%) 3-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 1-0 (6%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Under 2.5 Goals 35%
Criciúma Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 25 Criciúma vs Brusque 3-3
Jan 23 Criciúma vs Camboriú 1-2
Jan 19 Criciúma vs Concórdia 3-1
Jan 15 Criciúma vs Joinville 0-0
Jan 11 Criciúma vs Avaí 2-1
Jan 07 Criciúma vs Marcílio … 2-0
Nov 16 Criciúma vs Botafogo 2-0
Nov 09 Criciúma vs Athletico… 1-0
Nov 01 Criciúma vs Ferroviár… 0-0
Oct 27 Criciúma vs Joinville 2-2
Chapecoense Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 28 Chapecoen… vs Santos 4-2
Jan 25 Chapecoen… vs Joinville 6-0
Jan 22 Chapecoen… vs Avaí 1-1
Jan 18 Chapecoen… vs Marcílio … 1-0
Jan 14 Chapecoen… vs Concórdia 1-2
Jan 11 Chapecoen… vs Camboriú 2-0
Jan 06 Chapecoen… vs Brusque 1-1
Nov 23 Chapecoen… vs Athletico… 1-0
Nov 15 Chapecoen… vs Volta Red… 1-1
Nov 10 Chapecoen… vs América M… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Criciúma in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Chapecoense in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 07, 2025 Criciúma 2 - 0 Chapecoense Serie B
May 04, 2025 Chapecoense 2 - 1 Criciúma Serie B
Feb 01, 2025 Chapecoense 0 - 0 Criciúma Catarinense - 1
Mar 02, 2024 Criciúma 2 - 0 Chapecoense Catarinense - 1
Oct 14, 2023 Criciúma 1 - 2 Chapecoense Serie B
Jun 24, 2023 Chapecoense 1 - 1 Criciúma Serie B
Jan 22, 2023 Chapecoense 1 - 1 Criciúma Catarinense - 1
Sep 25, 2022 Criciúma 2 - 0 Chapecoense Serie B
Jun 11, 2022 Chapecoense 2 - 3 Criciúma Serie B
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Criciúma to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Criciúma Power 0
Chapecoense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Criciúma Position

-1

Position Gap

2

Chapecoense Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.