AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Iraqi League Feb 05, 2026

Erbil

Home
VS
12:00

Naft

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Erbil Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Naft Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.10 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.2 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Erbil Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Naft Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (30%) 0-0 (27%) 2-0 (16%) 3-0 (6%) 1-1 (6%) 0-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Under 2.5 Goals 86%
Erbil Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Erbil vs Baghdad 1-1
Jan 27 Erbil vs Al Karkh 1-1
Jan 23 Erbil vs Al-Talaba 0-2
Jan 17 Erbil vs Al Zawra'a 1-0
Jan 13 Erbil vs Duhok 2-1
Jan 08 Erbil vs Mosul 0-2
Jan 04 Erbil vs Al Quwa A… 0-0
Dec 31 Erbil vs Naft Mays… 1-0
Dec 22 Erbil vs Diyala 1-1
Nov 22 Erbil vs Gharraf 2-1
Naft Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Naft vs Al Zawra'a 0-0
Jan 28 Naft vs Al Minaa … 0-0
Jan 23 Naft vs Naft Mays… 1-2
Jan 19 Naft vs Al Kahrab… 1-0
Jan 14 Naft vs Gharraf 2-0
Jan 09 Naft vs Diyala 2-1
Jan 05 Naft vs Newroz 2-0
Jan 01 Naft vs Al Najaf 0-0
Dec 23 Naft vs Al Quwa A… 0-0
Nov 21 Naft vs Mosul 1-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 16, 2025 Erbil 2 - 3 Naft Iraqi League
Jan 28, 2025 Naft 0 - 2 Erbil Iraqi League
May 12, 2024 Naft 0 - 1 Erbil Iraqi League
Oct 27, 2023 Erbil 1 - 1 Naft Iraqi League
May 07, 2023 Naft 0 - 2 Erbil Iraqi League
Dec 05, 2022 Erbil 2 - 0 Naft Iraqi League
May 04, 2022 Naft 2 - 0 Erbil Iraqi League
Nov 26, 2021 Erbil 0 - 0 Naft Iraqi League
May 17, 2021 Erbil 2 - 1 Naft Iraqi League
Jan 02, 2021 Naft 1 - 1 Erbil Iraqi League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Erbil to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Erbil Power 0
Naft Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Erbil Position

+9

Position Gap

12

Naft Position
Home Win Rate: 78%
Away Win Rate: 11%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.