AI Match Insights

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Azerbaijan Premier League Jan 31, 2023

Qarabağ FK

Home
VS
12:00

Şamaxı

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Qarabağ FK Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Şamaxı Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 64% Draw Risk: 23%
xG: 4.50 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.2 Position gap: 5 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Qarabağ FK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Şamaxı Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (9%) 1-0 (4%) 3-1 (3%) 2-1 (2%) 0-0 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Qarabağ FK Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 19 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 1-0
Dec 13 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 1-0
Oct 30 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 0-4
Aug 27 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 4-0
Apr 15 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 8-0
Şamaxı Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 13 Şamaxı vs Zira 0-0
Nov 28 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 1-1
Nov 11 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 4-2
Oct 30 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 0-4
Oct 14 Şamaxı vs Qabala 1-1
Sep 18 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 2-1
Sep 11 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 1-1
Aug 27 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 4-0
Aug 14 Şamaxı vs Qabala 3-1
May 15 Şamaxı vs Qabala 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Qarabağ FK in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 30, 2022 Şamaxı 0 - 4 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 27, 2022 Qarabağ FK 4 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 15, 2022 Qarabağ FK 8 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Qarabağ FK to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Qarabağ FK Power 0
Şamaxı Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Qarabağ FK Position

+5

Position Gap

7

Şamaxı Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.