AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Iraqi League Apr 16, 2025

Erbil

Home
VS
16:30

Naft

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Erbil Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Naft Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 89%
Standings 85%
Market 50%
Combined: 56% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.84 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 0.2 Position gap: 10 places
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Erbil Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Naft Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (24%) 2-0 (22%) 3-0 (14%) 0-0 (13%) 1-1 (5%) 2-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 15%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
Erbil Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 12 Erbil vs Al Zawra'a 4-0
Jan 28 Erbil vs Naft 0-2
Jan 19 Erbil vs Al Karkh 2-4
Jan 15 Erbil vs Al-Talaba 2-1
Nov 30 Erbil vs Naft Mays… 1-1
Oct 05 Erbil vs Al Zawra'a 1-1
Sep 27 Erbil vs Duhok 0-1
Sep 20 Erbil vs Diyala 2-1
Jun 23 Erbil vs Duhok 2-1
Jun 19 Erbil vs Naft Mays… 2-0
Naft Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 10 Naft vs Diyala 2-0
Mar 29 Naft vs Al Minaa … 2-0
Mar 02 Naft vs Al Quwa A… 0-0
Feb 14 Naft vs Al Najaf 0-0
Jan 28 Naft vs Erbil 0-2
Jan 15 Naft vs Al Zawra'a 3-1
Jan 07 Naft vs Al Minaa … 1-0
Jan 02 Naft vs Al Zawra'a 0-0
Dec 08 Naft vs Al Quwa A… 0-1
Dec 01 Naft vs Diyala 0-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 28, 2025 Naft 0 - 2 Erbil Iraqi League
May 12, 2024 Naft 0 - 1 Erbil Iraqi League
Oct 27, 2023 Erbil 1 - 1 Naft Iraqi League
May 07, 2023 Naft 0 - 2 Erbil Iraqi League
Dec 05, 2022 Erbil 2 - 0 Naft Iraqi League
May 04, 2022 Naft 2 - 0 Erbil Iraqi League
Nov 26, 2021 Erbil 0 - 0 Naft Iraqi League
May 17, 2021 Erbil 2 - 1 Naft Iraqi League
Jan 02, 2021 Naft 1 - 1 Erbil Iraqi League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Erbil to win (64% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Erbil Power 0
Naft Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Erbil Position

+10

Position Gap

12

Naft Position
Home Win Rate: 78%
Away Win Rate: 11%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.