Liga MX · Jul 21, 2024 03:05
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
Toluca
PWR 35
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
1 - 1
FT
Toluca
PWR 35
47% H
25% D
28% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-1 (9%)
3-1 (8%)
2-0 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
1-0 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 1-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 2 rules · 71%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_TOP_POSITION
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 2)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Cruz Azul Form
LDLWD
STABLE
Toluca Form
DLLWL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.569%
BTTS66%
Under 2.531%
Cruz Azul Goals
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
Toluca Goals
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.63
Cruz Azulvs
1.23
TolucaDecision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum85%
Standings75%
Market50%
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#2
Cruz Azul+3
Gap#5
Toluca
WR 100% 9 pts
WR 33% 8 pts
Cruz Azul
8.0%
| May 27 | Cruz Az… v Club Am… | 1-0 |
| May 24 | Cruz Az… v Club Am… | 1-1 |
| May 20 | Cruz Az… v Monterr… | 1-2 |
| May 17 | Cruz Az… v Monterr… | 0-1 |
| May 13 | Cruz Az… v U.N.A.M… | 2-2 |
| May 10 | Cruz Az… v U.N.A.M… | 0-2 |
| Apr 28 | Cruz Az… v Toluca | 0-1 |
| Apr 22 | Cruz Az… v Atlas | 2-2 |
| Apr 13 | Cruz Az… v Puebla | 0-1 |
| Apr 07 | Cruz Az… v Monterr… | 2-1 |
Toluca
6.0%
| May 12 | Toluca v Guadala… | 0-0 |
| May 09 | Toluca v Guadala… | 1-0 |
| Apr 28 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 0-1 |
| Apr 20 | Toluca v Atletic… | 1-5 |
| Apr 14 | Toluca v Club Am… | 5-1 |
| Apr 07 | Toluca v Atlas | 4-1 |
| Mar 02 | Toluca v Tigres … | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Toluca v Santos … | 1-0 |
| Feb 19 | Toluca v Monterr… | 0-0 |
| Jan 27 | Toluca v Puebla | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Apr 28, 2024 | Toluca | 0-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Jul 08, 2023 | Cruz Azul | 0-2 | Toluca |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Toluca | 3-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Toluca | 1-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Cruz Azul | 2-3 | Toluca |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Toluca | 1-4 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Cruz Azul | 4-0 | Toluca |
Key Factors
Toluca struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.