Predictions Match Details
Primeira Liga · Sep 18, 2022 14:30

Arouca
PWR 35
2 - 2
FT

Guimaraes
PWR 35
61% H 22% D 17% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Arouca to win (58% confidence)
Prediction
1-0
Score
58%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (22%) 2-0 (18%) 0-0 (13%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 2-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk41%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Close positions = higher draw riskWeak home team = higher draw riskBoth mid-table = higher draw riskElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 2.7% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Arouca Form WWDWD
STABLE
Guimaraes Form LLLLW
DOWN
Score & Markets
Over 2.532%
BTTS24%
Under 2.568%
Arouca Goals
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
15%
4
6%
Guimaraes Goals
0
70%
1
25%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Arouca
vs
0.36
Guimaraes
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum84%
Standings44%
Market50%
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#12
Arouca
-3
Gap
#9
Guimaraes
WR 27% 23 pts WR 30% 28 pts
Arouca 16.0%
Aug 20 Arouca v Santa C… 1-2
Aug 15 Arouca v GIL Vic… 1-0
Apr 15 Arouca v Santa C… 1-1
Apr 02 Arouca v GIL Vic… 2-1
Mar 19 Arouca v Tondela 2-2
Mar 05 Arouca v Sportin… 2-0
Feb 19 Arouca v Guimara… 1-3
Dec 05 Arouca v Santa C… 2-1
Nov 05 Arouca v GIL Vic… 1-1
Oct 29 Arouca v Tondela 2-0
Guimaraes 4.0%
Sep 04 Guimara… v Paredes 0-1
Sep 03 Guimara… v SC Braga 1-0
Aug 29 Guimara… v Casa Pi… 0-1
Aug 27 Guimara… v Sanjoan… 3-1
Aug 14 Guimara… v Estoril 1-0
May 15 Guimara… v GIL Vic… 5-0
Apr 03 Guimara… v Moreire… 0-1
Mar 19 Guimara… v Sportin… 1-3
Feb 19 Guimara… v Arouca 1-3
Feb 13 Guimara… v Fafe 1-3
Head-to-Head (3)
Feb 19, 2022 Guimaraes 1-3 Arouca
Sep 18, 2021 Arouca 2-2 Guimaraes
Nov 21, 2020 Arouca 0-0 Guimaraes
Key Factors
Arouca in strong form (3W in last 5)
Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.