Primeira Liga · Mar 22, 2026 18:00
Sporting CP
PWR 35
Alverca
PWR 35
PWR 35
0 - 2
FT
Sporting CP
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
X2 (Away/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 73% away + 17% draw = 90% combined
94%
accuracy
1.17x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Sporting CP Win
Score
1-3
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (25%)2-0 (21%)0-0 (15%)3-0 (12%)1-1 (5%)2-1 (5%)
CORRECT 0-2
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
3.84x
DC X2
90%
Away/Draw
1.17x
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
14%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Alverca
DDDDD
STABLE
Sporting CP
WDLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_POINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 31% at home = very high riskHome team drew 5/5 recent gamesCombined DR 62% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (30.4%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Alvercavs
0.21
Sporting CPGoal Probability
Alverca
0
18%
1
31%
2
27%
3
15%
4
7%
Sporting CP
0
81%
1
17%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (14%)0-1 (14%)1-0 (14%)1-1 (14%)0-2 (7%)1-2 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#10
Alverca-8
Gap#2
Sporting CP
WR 39% 29 pts
WR 69% 62 pts
Alverca
10.0%
| Mar 14 | Alverca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Mar 07 | Alverca v AVS | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Alverca v Guimara… | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Alverca v Santa C… | 1-1 |
| Feb 13 | Alverca v Tondela | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Alverca v Benfica | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Alverca v Estrela… | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Alverca v SC Braga | 5-0 |
| Jan 17 | Alverca v Moreire… | 2-1 |
| Jan 04 | Alverca v Famalic… | 1-0 |
Sporting CP
6.0%
| Mar 17 | Sportin… v Bodø/Gl… | 3-0 |
| Mar 14 | Sportin… v Rhode I… | 1-1 |
| Mar 13 | Sportin… v Chaves | 0-1 |
| Mar 11 | Sportin… v Bodø/Gl… | 3-0 |
| Mar 08 | Sportin… v Lusitân… | 1-0 |
| Mar 08 | Sportin… v Hartfor… | 0-3 |
| Mar 07 | Sportin… v SC Braga | 2-2 |
| Mar 04 | Sportin… v Carabob… | 0-1 |
| Mar 03 | Sportin… v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Feb 28 | Sportin… v Tampa B… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Oct 31, 2025 | Sporting CP | 2-0 | Alverca |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Sporting CP | 5-1 | Alverca |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
87%
Standings
34%
Market
35%
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Sporting CP struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.