Primera División - Apertura · Mar 26, 2026 19:00
Danubio
PWR 35
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
Danubio
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Danubio Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (18%)3-0 (15%)1-0 (14%)2-1 (6%)0-0 (6%)3-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
BTTS
No
No 28%
Over 3.5
7%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Danubio
DWDDL
STABLE
Defensor Sport…
WLDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 50% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (30.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.52
Danubiovs
0.36
Defensor Sport…Goal Probability
Danubio
0
8%
1
20%
2
26%
3
22%
4
14%
Defensor Sp…
0
70%
1
25%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (22%)1-0 (21%)0-1 (12%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
| 2.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Danubio-1
Gap#8
Defensor Sp…
WR 50% 8 pts
WR 25% 8 pts
Danubio
10.0%
| Mar 21 | Danubio v Wandere… | 1-1 |
| Mar 16 | Danubio v Juventud | 4-1 |
| Mar 07 | Danubio v Peñarol… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Danubio v Progreso | 2-2 |
| Feb 21 | Danubio v Racing … | 4-0 |
| Feb 15 | Danubio v Boston … | 2-0 |
| Feb 09 | Danubio v Cerrito | 0-1 |
| Jan 12 | Danubio v Boston … | 1-0 |
| Nov 08 | Danubio v Plaza C… | 2-0 |
| Nov 02 | Danubio v Racing … | 1-2 |
Defensor Sport…
6.0%
| Mar 21 | Defenso… v Club Na… | 2-1 |
| Mar 15 | Defenso… v Deporti… | 1-0 |
| Mar 08 | Defenso… v Central… | 0-0 |
| Mar 03 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 26 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 1-1 |
| Jan 17 | Defenso… v Unión S… | 1-1 |
| Jan 12 | Defenso… v Progreso | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Sep 19, 2025 | Defensor Spor… | 2-1 | Danubio |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Defensor Spor… | 1-0 | Danubio |
| Dec 07, 2023 | Defensor Spor… | 0-2 | Danubio |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.