Primera División - Apertura · Mar 26, 2026 16:00
Racing Club de Montevideo
PWR 35
Progreso
PWR 35
Racing Club de Montevideo
PWR 35
4-1
predicted
Progreso
PWR 35
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Racing Club de Montevideo Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (12%)1-0 (11%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No 49%
Over 3.5
19%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Racing Club de…
DWWLW
STABLE
Progreso
DWDDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.27
Racing Club de…vs
0.79
ProgresoGoal Probability
Racing Club…
0
10%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Progreso
0
45%
1
36%
2
14%
3
4%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (19%)2-0 (17%)0-0 (11%)3-0 (10%)1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 66% | 35% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% | - |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Racing Club…+12
Gap#13
Progreso
WR 67% 13 pts
WR 33% 5 pts
Racing Club de…
14.0%
| Mar 21 | Racing … v Peñarol… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Racing … v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 08 | Racing … v Cerrito | 1-0 |
| Mar 05 | Racing … v Boston … | 1-0 |
| Feb 28 | Racing … v Albion … | 1-3 |
| Feb 21 | Racing … v Danubio | 4-0 |
| Feb 14 | Racing … v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Racing … v Deporti… | 2-4 |
| Jan 20 | Racing … v Peñarol… | 1-0 |
| Jan 15 | Racing … v Cerrito | 2-1 |
Progreso
10.0%
| Mar 22 | Progreso v Boston … | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Progreso v Cerrito | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Progreso v Albion … | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Progreso v Danubio | 2-2 |
| Feb 21 | Progreso v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Progreso v Deporti… | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Progreso v Central… | 0-3 |
| Jan 29 | Progreso v Boston … | 1-2 |
| Jan 22 | Progreso v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Jan 19 | Progreso v Juventus | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Sep 29, 2025 | Racing Club d… | 0-0 | Progreso |
| Jul 07, 2024 | Progreso | 3-2 | Racing Club d… |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
88%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Racing Club de Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.