Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Mar 24, 2026 23:30
Club Nacional
PWR 35
Cerro Largo
PWR 35
Club Nacional
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Cerro Largo
PWR 35
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (19%)0-0 (16%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)2-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
73%
BTTS
No
No 32%
Over 3.5
16%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Club Nacional
LWLLW
STABLE
Cerro Largo
WWLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityHome team draws 33% at home = very high riskH2H: 4/10 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Club Nacionalvs
0.63
Cerro LargoGoal Probability
Club Nacion…
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
3%
Cerro Largo
0
53%
1
34%
2
11%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (16%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (12%)2-0 (10%)0-1 (10%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% | - |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#7
Club Nacion…+4
Gap#11
Cerro Largo
WR 33% 10 pts
WR 50% 6 pts
Club Nacional
8.0%
| Mar 21 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Mar 13 | Club Na… v Wandere… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Club Na… v Juventud | 3-1 |
| Mar 01 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Club Na… v Progreso | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Club Na… v Racing … | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Club Na… v Boston … | 1-2 |
| Feb 01 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Club Na… v Concepc… | 1-0 |
| Jan 22 | Club Na… v Progreso | 1-1 |
Cerro Largo
8.0%
| Mar 20 | Cerro L… v Deporti… | 3-1 |
| Mar 15 | Cerro L… v Central… | 1-3 |
| Mar 09 | Cerro L… v Atletic… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Cerro L… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Feb 21 | Cerro L… v Defenso… | 1-0 |
| Feb 13 | Cerro L… v Wandere… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Cerro L… v Juventud | 0-1 |
| Jan 21 | Cerro L… v Concepc… | 1-3 |
| Jan 17 | Cerro L… v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Jan 14 | Cerro L… v Atletic… | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 17, 2026 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Cerro Largo |
| Oct 04, 2025 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Cerro Largo |
| Apr 06, 2025 | Cerro Largo | 0-4 | Club Nacional |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Cerro Largo | 0-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Cerro Largo | 0-4 | Club Nacional |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Cerro Largo | 2-2 | Club Nacional |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| Feb 10, 2023 | Club Nacional | 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Cerro Largo |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
67%
Standings
51%
Market
50%
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Club Nacional struggling (3L in last 5)
Cerro Largo struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.