Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Mar 24, 2026 20:00
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
Central Espanol
PWR 35
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
3-1
predicted
Central Espanol
PWR 35
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Peñarol Montevideo Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
68%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (39%)1-0 (21%)0-1 (16%)1-1 (8%)2-0 (6%)0-2 (3%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
7%
Under 2.5
93%
93%
BTTS
No
No 14%
Over 3.5
2%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
WDDWW
STABLE
Central Espanol
LLDLW
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk33%
Accuracy73%
FORM_MOMENTUMFORM_DOMINANTHOME_STREAK
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 33% at home = very high riskPoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 67% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (33.2%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.54
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.40
Central EspanolGoal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
58%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
0%
Central Esp…
0
67%
1
27%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (35%)1-0 (25%)0-1 (12%)2-0 (9%)1-1 (9%)2-1 (3%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 65% | 35% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Peñarol Mon…+3
Gap#6
Central Esp…
WR 67% 13 pts
WR 67% 10 pts
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 3-1 |
| Mar 21 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 0-0 |
| Mar 16 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Peñarol… v Albion … | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peñarol… v Indepen… | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Peñarol… v Deporti… | 2-1 |
Central Espanol
6.0%
| Mar 21 | Central… v Atletic… | 2-1 |
| Mar 15 | Central… v Cerro L… | 1-3 |
| Mar 08 | Central… v Defenso… | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Central… v Wandere… | 0-1 |
| Feb 22 | Central… v Juventud | 0-1 |
| Feb 15 | Central… v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Central… v Progreso | 0-3 |
| Jan 20 | Central… v Univers… | 0-0 |
| Jan 13 | Central… v Peñarol… | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Central… v Albion … | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Feb 15, 2026 | Central Espan… | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Central Espan… |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
55%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
Central Espanol struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.