Premier League · Mar 25, 2026 20:30
Tivoli Gardens
PWR 35
Tivoli Gardens
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Chapelton
PWR 35
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (30%)0-0 (29%)2-0 (16%)1-1 (6%)0-1 (6%)3-0 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
13%
Under 2.5
87%
87%
BTTS
No
No 12%
Over 3.5
8%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tivoli Gardens
LDWDL
STABLE
Chapelton
LWLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 36% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 2/7 draws (29%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Tivoli Gardensvs
0.20
ChapeltonGoal Probability
Tivoli Gard…
0
36%
1
37%
2
19%
3
7%
4
2%
Chapelton
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (20%)0-0 (20%)1-1 (12%)0-1 (12%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80% | 20% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 3% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#10
Tivoli Gard…-2
Gap#8
Chapelton
WR 36% 35 pts
WR 21% 38 pts
Tivoli Gardens
8.0%
| Mar 19 | Tivoli … v Arnett … | 0-2 |
| Mar 16 | Tivoli … v Spanish… | 0-0 |
| Mar 08 | Tivoli … v Dunbeho… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | Tivoli … v Mount P… | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Tivoli … v Treasur… | 4-2 |
| Feb 16 | Tivoli … v Waterho… | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Tivoli … v Arnett … | 0-2 |
| Feb 01 | Tivoli … v Harbour… | 2-2 |
| Jan 28 | Tivoli … v Treasur… | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Tivoli … v Cavalie… | 1-2 |
Chapelton
4.0%
| Mar 19 | Chapelt… v Racing … | 3-0 |
| Mar 15 | Chapelt… v Dunbeho… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Chapelt… v Cavalie… | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Chapelt… v Dunbeho… | 0-1 |
| Feb 23 | Chapelt… v Racing … | 2-0 |
| Feb 15 | Chapelt… v Treasur… | 2-0 |
| Feb 11 | Chapelt… v Molynes… | 1-0 |
| Feb 08 | Chapelt… v Molynes… | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Chapelt… v Mount P… | 0-2 |
| Jan 25 | Chapelt… v Montego… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Dec 29, 2025 | Tivoli Gardens | 2-0 | Chapelton |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Chapelton | 2-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chapelton | 2-2 | Tivoli Gardens |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Tivoli Gardens | 1-1 | Chapelton |
| Dec 01, 2024 | Chapelton | 2-3 | Tivoli Gardens |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Chapelton | 2-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Tivoli Gardens | 3-0 | Chapelton |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
78%
Standings
46%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Chapelton struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.